The Indiana Fever face a grueling task tonight, limping into Mortgage Matchup Center to take on the Phoenix Mercury on the second leg of a back-to-back. Still missing Caitlin Clark, Indiana is desperate to get back in the win column following Wednesday's loss to the Los Angeles Sparks.
They face a tough matchup against Kahleah Copper, who has never met a shot she didn’t like. My Fever vs. Mercury predictions expect Copper to shine against a tired, shorthanded defense.
Read on for my full WNBA picks, featuring the Over on Copper’s points prop and a +600 Same-Game Parlay anchored by Kelsey Mitchell’s three-pointers and a plus-money Aliyah Boston combo for this Thursday, July 9.
- UPDATE: Added Alyssa Thomas prop!
Fever vs Mercury prediction
Fever vs Mercury best bet: Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 points (+110)
Volume has been king for Kahleah Copper this season, as she ranks second in FGA (16.1), eighth in three-point attempts (6.3) and third in free throw attempts (7.2).
Her ability to draw contact and get to the line will be highly beneficial tonight, as the Indiana Fever allow the most FTA to opponents at 25.5 per game.
Over the last eight games, no player has put up Copper’s 26.8 points per game, and she scored 21+ six times in that span. Indiana has allowed the fourth-most ppg to opponents, making this one playable to 23.5.
COVERS INTEL: Kahleah Copper has averaged just 17.5 points per game on the road, but her 24.4 points per game at home ranks second in the WNBA behind only A’ja Wilson.
Fever vs Mercury same-game parlay
Copper ranks first in PPG over the last eight games, and Kelsey Mitchell is right behind her at 25.4. In that span, Mitchell also ranks second in three-pointers made at a healthy 3.8 on 51.7% shooting from beyond the arc. The Phoenix Mercury have allowed the second-highest three-point percentage at 36.9. Play to 3.5.
Natasha Mack ranks 15th in Defensive Rating and third in Rebound Percentage among players averaging 25+ mpg this season. Her absence opens up the paint for Aliyah Boston, who posted 23 points and nine boards in her last tilt against Phoenix sans Mack.
Fever vs Mercury SGP
- Kahleah Copper Over 20.5 points
- Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 three-pointers
- Aliyah Boston to Record a Double-Double
Fever vs Mercury player prop pick
Alyssa Thomas to Record a Double-Double (+120)
Alyssa Thomas has recorded five double-doubles this season, averaging 14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds and 8.3 dimes. Two of her double-doubles have come with points and rebounds, and three have come with points and assists.
Over her last three games without Natasha Mack in action, Thomas’ rebound average has risen from 6.7 to eight, offering an additional opportunity to rack up counting stats.
Three of her five double-doubles have come at home, and Indiana’s rest disadvantage and recent poor form on defense give Thomas the edge in hitting this plus-money combo prop.
- Best bet: 15-18, -4.47 units
- SGP: 4-29, -7.4 units
- Player prop: 3-4, -1.41 units
Fever vs Mercury odds
- Spread: Indiana +1.5 | Phoenix -1.5
- Moneyline: Indiana +100 | Phoenix -120
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 | Under 170.5
Fever vs Mercury trend
Phoenix has won three of the last four head-to-head matchups with Indiana. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Fever vs Mercury
| Location | Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Thursday, July 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
Fever vs Mercury latest injuries
Fever: Caitlin Clark (back) ruled out.
Mercury: Natasha Mack (foot) ruled out.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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