The Atlanta Dream landed the first punch in this WNBA semifinal series, but a veteran New York Liberty squad has the firepower to hit back tonight at State Farm Arena.
With Atlanta missing Allisha Gray, New York owns a clear scoring edge for Game 2, and my Liberty vs. Dream prediction expects Breanna Stewart & Co. to pull level as short 1.5-point underdogs.
Take a closer look at this Oct. 7 matchup with my free WNBA picks and betting nuggets.
TOP PICK
Liberty vs Dream prediction: Liberty moneyline
While the Game 1 film study will have been painful for the New York Liberty, it likely also confirmed a path to tying the series tonight if they can clean up their turnovers (21 in the series opener).
New York let the Atlanta Dream off the hook on Sunday, but the Liberty are 28-19 SU after a loss this season, and Allisha Gray’s hand injury takes the hosts’ leading scorer off the floor.
Atlanta papered over her absence in Game 1, but it’s a big blow for a Dream squad that already ranked in the bottom half of the league in FG% and 3P%, and the battle-tested Liberty can be more aggressive protecting the paint tonight.
The Dream are just 9-13 ATS at home this season, while prior to this weekend, New York was 3-1 SU in its past four road playoff games. I’m taking the Liberty moneyline – playable up to 52%.
COVERS INTEL: The Dream will miss more than just Allisha Gray’s 19 ppg tonight — she’s also a low turnover hub (8.5 TOV%) and a key piece of their pickpocketing defense (1.4 steals per game), and Atlanta had no experience of playing without her in the regular season.
Liberty vs Dream combo
We got a B+ Breanna Stewart performance in the series opener, but the Liberty need her A-game to win at State Farm Arena — and I expect her to be ultra-aggressive tonight to help the visitors knot the series at 1-1.
Stewart has finished with 20+ points in five of her last six outings, and she’s shooting 49% so far in the 2026 playoffs. As usual, the New York frontcourt has a size advantage to maximize, so look for Chris DeMarco and his staff to ensure Stewart gets more than the 13 shots she took in Game 1.
Some of the same logic applies to Stewart (and Jonquel Jones) on the glass as they try to keep Angel Reese at bay. The Dream pose less of a perimeter threat without Gray’s spacing, and that frees up Stewart to be closer to the rim.
She grabbed 9+ boards in three of her final four regular-season contests and ended with 12 rebounds in Game 1 of the first round in Minnesota.
Liberty vs Dream combo
- Liberty moneyline
- Breanna Stewart 20+ points
- Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 rebounds
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
Liberty vs Dream player prop: Jordin Canada Over 7.5 assists
Jordin Canada stole the show in the second half of Game 1, powering the surge that tipped the contest in Atlanta’s favor, and she’ll be busy tonight as an even bigger focal point of the Dream’s offensive sets.
Canada has dished 9+ dimes in four of her last six outings, and she’s the obvious choice to soak up more touches as the hosts reallocate Gray’s 23% usage rate. If she can stay out of foul trouble, the Atlanta guard should see 35+ minutes in Game 2.
- Top picks: 13-14, -2.28 units
- Combos: 6-21, -0.40 units
Liberty vs Dream odds
- Spread: Liberty +1.5 (51%) | Dream -1.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: Liberty 48% | Dream 52%
- Over/Under: Over 170.5 (50%) | Under 170.5 (51%)
Liberty vs Dream trend
The Over is 17-7 in the Liberty’s 24 road games this year. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Dream
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Liberty vs Dream latest injuries
Liberty: Satou Sabally F (Out).
Dream: Allisha Gray G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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