The Golden State Valkyries beat the Las Vegas Aces 71-60 in Sunday’s Game 1, but the Aces will look to even things up before the series shifts to Las Vegas for Games 3 and 4.
My WNBA picks & Aces vs. Valkyries prediction expects the visiting team to win outright as A’ja Wilson gets the best of Gabby Williams.
Here’s why I’m backing the road dogs, betting the total, and hitting the Over on a pair of player props.
TOP PICK
Aces vs Valkyries prediction: Aces moneyline
You can’t keep a good team down, and the defending champs were a perfect example of that in 2026.
The Las Vegas Aces went 11-3 SU and 10-4 ATS following a loss, and both were the best marks in the W. The market overreacted to the Golden State Valkyries Game 1 victory, ignoring Las Vegas’ regular season head-to-head domination. Trading the Aces SU is a value play at 48%, as I would price it at 60%.
The Aces played stellar basketball on the road, finishing with the second-best road record at 16-6. Las Vegas’ 113.8 Offensive Rating was best in the league, and the team’s 105.4 Defensive Rating ranked fifth. Las Vegas ranked third with an 8.4 Net Rating.
The Aces ranked in the Top-3 in EFG% (55.8), TS% (59.3) and lowest TO% (15.5) on the road. Prior to the Game 1 loss, the Aces won six straight against the Valkyries by an average of 10.7 ppg.
Las Vegas’ statistical strength on the road coupled with its history of solid play following a loss gives it the necessary tools to get back on track and tie the series.
COVERS INTEL: No team responded better from big losses than the Las Vegas Aces this season. Las Vegas went 8-1 SU following double-digit losses, and the Aces went 4-0 following 30-point losses, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.8 ppg.
Aces vs Valkyries combo
I like this line up to 27.5, so I’m happy to trade it at just 24.5 points. A'ja Wilson came up just shy of this line in Game 1, going for 24 points on 38.1% shooting. In three prior matchups, she averaged 25 points on 51.9% shooting.
Wilson posted 36 points in Game 3 against the Indiana Fever, responding in a big way following the Game 2 loss. I expect her to respond in a similar fashion tonight.
I’ll trade the Over up to 159.5. The Aces and V’s have combined for 157+ points in five of eight career matchups, including two of four at Golden State.
Las Vegas’ 60 points in Game 1 represent their lowest output of the season, and I expect far more points in Game 2 after the Aces averaged 92.9 ppg on the road, good for second-most in the W.
Aces vs Valkyries combo
- Aces moneyline
- A’ja Wilson Over 24.5 points
- Over 156.5
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Top picks: 38-45, -11.90 units
- Combos: 9-74, -27.03 units
Aces vs Valkyries odds
- Spread: Aces +1.5 | Valkyries -1.5
- Moneyline: Aces 54% | Valkyries 48%
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Aces vs Valkyries trend
Las Vegas has won five of the last six H2H matchups with Golden State. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Aces vs Valkyries
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock, NBCSN |
Aces vs Valkyries latest injuries
Aces: Dana Evans (Out), Stephanie Talbot (Questionable).
Valkyries: No injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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