The Atlanta Dream are back on the road after a five-day break visiting the Eastern Conference’s top team, the Connecticut Sun, on Wednesday.
Atlanta dropped a pair of road games out west last week, but have had a good chunk of time off to rest and prep for a Connecticut squad that brings a 10-4 straight up mark into this contest. Connecticut is, however, coming off a loss, and while it's yet to play Atlanta this year, it won all three matchups in 2021.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Dream vs. Sun on June 15.
Dream vs Sun odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Dream vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 6/15/2022 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Dream vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Wednesday, June 15, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NESN+, Bally Sports Southeast
Dream vs Sun betting preview
Key injuries
Dream: Erica Wheeler G (Out), Tiffany Hayes G (Out).
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Connecticut has gone 7-15 Over/Under in its last 22 home stands. Find more WNBA betting trends for Dream vs. Sun.
Dream vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Sun kicked the tires on their title chances in a big conference clash with the defending champion Chicago Sky on Friday, and fell short of expectations in an 83-79 loss as 6.5-point home favorites. Connecticut had won four straight games before that defeat and has had an extended break from action to rest up before a very busy end to June.
The Dream will test those legs, playing at a quicker pace and running a perimeter-orientated offense. Atlanta has the third-fastest tempo in the WNBA and tries to stretch its opponents with most of the offensive action happening away from the basket.
That’s a contrast to the Connecticut game plan, which leans on its size inside to put up almost 39 points in the paint per game, and crashes the offensive glass for plenty of putbacks and second-chance scoring opportunities. The Sun top the WNBA with 27.1 field goal attempts within five feet of the basket and will really put the Dream’s No. 1 ranked defense to the test.
Running down Atlanta’s past outings, we see a team that has roughed up some of the league’s weaker clubs but can’t get over the hump vs. the elite.
The Dream’s seven wins on the year have come against foes with a combined record of 23-48 and none of those opponents currently have a winning record, including three victories over the Indiana Fever (4-12). Five of Atlanta’s six losses (1-5 ATS) have come against heavyweights Seattle, Chicago, Washington, and Las Vegas, and the team owns a putrid average margin of -13.6 points in those defeats.
Prediction: Sun -9.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Over/Under analysis
Connecticut will attack the interior, score high percentage buckets, and force Atlanta to inbound the ball on the bulk of possessions, therefore slowing the pace of the game and eventually wearing down a weaker Atlanta side.
While the Dream’s defensive numbers may be a bit puffed up due to their level of competition so far, Atlanta does work hard on that end and is great at winning the hustle battle and quick on help defense. It allows league-lows with 26.2 points in the paint and 8.8 second-chance points while giving up less than eight offensive rebounds a night.
As for their offense, the Dream don’t travel that well. They average just 75 points per away game (second lowest) on less than 42% shooting success, and in those matchups with stronger foes, the Dream have counterd with only 64.8 points. Atlanta is coming off one of its better scoring nights as a visitor in Friday’s loss at Phoenix (losing 90-88 and shooting 47%) but the Mercury are among the bottom-tier defenses in the WNBA.
The Sun lock it down inside Mohegan Sun Arena, boasting an advanced defensive rating of 94.9 (third best at home) and allowing foes to muster just 74.4 points against on 42% success from the floor, including a smothering 30.7% rate from distance. Going back to last season, Connecticut has gone 7-15 Over/Under in its last 22 home stands.
Prediction: Under 155.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
The Sun have a team total of 82.5 points tonight against what is the top-rated defense in terms of points against. As mentioned above, however, the Dream’s defensive stats are padded against some lower-quality teams.
Connecticut is averaging more than 87 points on the season — and while it managed only 79 in the loss to Chicago last time out — it has posted 83 points or more in each of the four games prior. Not only should the Sun have their way inside, but once the Dream have to collapse in the paint, Connecticut can bury foes with solid shooting from beyond the arc (WNBA-best 36.4%).
But what will get Connecticut over the top is its ability to flip defense into offense. The Sun are the best team in the East at creating turnovers (16.7 per game) and translating those mistakes into easy points (league-high 21.2 points off turnovers).
Atlanta, on the other hand, coughs the ball up a league-high 17.7 times per game and has a backcourt in flux with the loss of Erica Wheeler and new addition Asia Durr. The Dream had only five turnovers Friday but 15 and 22 in the two games prior.
All of it adds up to plenty of extra possessions for the stronger home side.
Pick: Sun team total Over 82.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
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