At best, the New York Liberty look adrift. They have gone 3-6 in their last nine games after starting the season 9-0.
Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Aces would love to be merely adrift. The splintering dynasty sits No. 8 in the WNBA standings, flirting with falling out of the postseason picture.
This is not the Las Vegas vs. New York rivalry of the last few years, but it is still a rivalry in those two locker rooms.
My Aces vs. Liberty predictions will trust the best player in this game against a broken defense.
Read more in my WNBA picks for Tuesday, July 8, with tip-off set for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Aces vs Liberty predictions
My Aces vs Liberty best bet: Aces moneyline (+185 at Caesars)
Jonquel Jones has long been underappreciated, a bold statement to say of someone who was the 2021 MVP.
However, in the four years since, she has never averaged as many as 15 points.
Jones's stout rebounding hardly warrants highlights, and her defense is rather subtle on the inside, even if she has twice been named to the second-team All-Defense in the last three seasons.
It is her defense that the New York Liberty dearly miss. Jones has twice sprained her ankle this season, managing two games between those worries.
In the Liberty’s seven games before Jones first sprained it — playing fewer than six minutes in that eighth game — they ranked far and away No. 1 in the WNBA in defensive rating, holding opponents to 87.7 points per 100 possessions.
Over the 11 games since, New York has ranked No. 9 in defensive rating, 19.9 points per 100 possessions worse than in that early-season stretch.
Without Jones’s rebounding, the Liberty have no one who is genuinely stout on the boards. Add in Isabelle Harrison missing tonight, and that worry becomes even worse.
Opponents are collecting more offensive boards. They are finding cleaner looks at the rim.
Everything that you assume is a problem when missing defensive post presences has indeed become a Liberty reality.
Enter A’ja Wilson. Does much else need to be said?
Wilson should feast on the inside tonight, and that thought alone provides value in backing the Las Vegas Aces as road dogs.
Aces vs Liberty same-game parlay (SGP)
Aces moneyline
A’ja Wilson Over 22.5 points
Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 assists
Without Jones, it may be entirely on Breanna Stewart’s shoulders to slow Wilson.
Simply enough, that task should not be on any one player’s shoulders. Wilson should feast on the inside.
That defensive workload for Stewart may take the ball out of her hands a bit offensively. With Natasha Cloud questionable — and not present at the media viewing portion of this morning’s shootaround — that will put the ball in Sabrina Ionescu’s hands that much more.
She has cleared this prop in four of her last six games, part of assisting on 29.9% of teammates’ buckets when on the court, second on the Liberty behind only Cloud.
Aces vs Liberty odds
Aces vs Liberty live odds
Aces vs Liberty opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +5.5 (-110) | New York -5.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas +176 | New York -220
- Over/Under: Over 165.5 (-110) | Under 165.5 (-110)
Aces vs Liberty trend
New York’s stumbling 3-6 outright stretch has included three losses as multi-bucket favorites. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Liberty.
How to watch Aces vs Liberty
| Location | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY |
| Date | Tuesday, 7-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Aces vs Liberty latest injuries
Aces: Megan Gustafson C (Questionable), Cheyenne Parker-Tyus F (Out).
Liberty: Jonquel Jones C (Out), Isabelle Harrison F (Out), Natasha Cloud G (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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