Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik is on the main card for UFC 266 betting on September 25 from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This is an interesting matchup between a pair of heavyweight contenders who are at a crossroads in their career. UFC betting lines have Blaydes as a significant favorite at -310 while Rozenstruik comes back at +225.
Here are our best free Blaydes vs. Rozenstruik picks and predictions for UFC 266 on Saturday, September 25.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik |
|---|---|---|
| Win by KO/TKO | +120 | +420 |
| Win by Points | +220 | +950 |
| Win by Submission | +1,800 | +2,600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of September 23, 2021.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik betting preview
Curtis "Razor" Blaydes is the No. 4-ranked contender in the heavyweight division and is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Derrick Lewis in February. That defeat snapped a four-fight winning streak for Blaydes, who was on the verge of earning a title shot.
The 30-year-old Blaydes has fought 18 times in his career with 15 wins, three losses, and one fight that was originally a stoppage win and then declared "no contest" after he tested positive for marijuana. Blaydes is the best wrestler in the division and averages a whopping 6.64 takedowns per 15 minutes with 44 percent of his significant strikes coming on the ground.
Jairzinho "Bigi Boy" Rozenstruik is the No. 6-ranked heavyweight contender and is fresh off a first-round knockout win over Augusto Sakai in June.
That fight allowed him to bounce back from a decision loss to Cyril Gane and improved his UFC record to 6-2. All six of his victories have been by knockout and his two defeats came against Gane and Francis Ngannou, who are facing off for the heavyweight title.
As a former professional kickboxer, it's little surprise that "Bigi Boy" is a polished striker with explosive power. That said, he's inexperienced in the wrestling department and can be a bit tentative at times.
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik tale of the tape
| Curtis Blaydes | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 33 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-2 |
| 259 lbs | Weight | 254 lbs |
| 80 inches | Reach | 78 inches |
| 14-3-0 (10 KO) | Record | 12-2-0 (11 KO) |
Blaydes vs Rozenstruik UFC predictions and betting picks
PREDICTION: Blaydes to win by decision (+220) - Blaydes' biggest weakness has been power-punchers, with two losses (and several haymakers absorbed) against Ngannou and another against Lewis where he was knocked out cold with an uppercut when he attempted a takedown.
Rozenstruik has plenty of one-punch power and his counter-striking ability is top-notch. However, he can be a bit gun-shy when it comes to letting his hands go and he could be even more reluctant to come forward in this one since he has to worry about Blaydes' relentless takedown attempts.
On the surface, Bigi Boy's takedown defense of 80 percent seems impressive, but he's never faced a wrestler like Blaydes. A more telling stat is how long he has been controlled on the ground against the few opponents who did take him down. More than three minutes against Junior Albini in his UFC debut, 8:21 versus Alistair Overeem, and almost five minutes against Gane.
Rozenstruik is pretty useless off his back and he could be in trouble against Blaydes' offensive wrestling and dominant top control. Of Blaydes' last eight wins, four have been by KO/TKO and four by decision, but with "win by decision" paying out at almost twice as much, that's where the betting value lies.
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