UFC 261 Shevchenko vs Andrade Picks: Champ Is Heavy Favorite

Apr 19, 2021 |
UFC 261 Shevchenko vs Andrade Picks: Champ Is Heavy Favorite
Shevchenko is 13-2 in her last 15 fights, with both defeats coming by decision to Amanda Nunes at bantamweight. She enters this fight against Andrade as a heavy -400 favorite.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Shevchenko is 13-2 in her last 15 fights, with both defeats coming by decision to Amanda Nunes at bantamweight. She enters this fight against Andrade as a heavy -400 favorite.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Jessica Andrade is on the main card for UFC 261 betting on April 24 from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Florida.

Shevchenko is the UFC women's flyweight champion and will make her fifth defense of the title against the Brazilian powerhouse Andrade.

UFC betting lines have Shevchenko as a significant favorite at -400 while Andrade comes back at +300.

Here are our best free Shevchenko vs Jessica Andrade picks and predictions for the flyweight championship at UFC 261 on Saturday, April 24.

Shevchenko vs Andrade fight odds

Method of Victory Valentina Shevchenko Jessica Andrade
Win Outright -400 +300
Win by KO/TKO +280 +600
Win by Points +135 +950
Win by Submission +500 +1,200
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Shevchenko vs Andrade betting preview

Valentina "Bullet" Shevchenko is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Jennifer Maia in November. The 33-year-old is 13-2 in her last 15 fights, with both defeats coming by decision to Amanda Nunes at bantamweight.

With a background in kickboxing and Muay Thai, Shevchenko is known for her speed, precision, and technical striking ability, but she's also a strong wrestler with 16 takedowns over her last five fights.  

Andrade is fresh off a first-round knockout win against Katlyn Chookagian in her flyweight debut in October. The former strawweight champ is 5-2 in her last seven fights, with those losses coming against the two highest-ranked fighters in the 115-pound division in Zhang Weili and Rose Namajunas. 

The 29-year-old Andrade is a pressure fighter that uses her strength and power to bully her opponents, both standing up and on the mat.  

Shevchenko vs Andrade tale of the tape

Valentina Shevchenko   Jessica Andrade
33 Age 29
5-foot-5 Height 5-foot-1
125 lbs Weight 125 lbs
66.5 inches Reach 62 inches
20-3-0 (6 KO) Record 21-8-0 (8 KO)

Shevchenko vs Andrade UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Shevchenko to win (-400) - This is actually the shortest line for Shevchenko since she won the title against Joanna Jędrzejczyk in 2018. That means oddsmakers are actually giving Andrade plenty of respect at +300, so can the Brazilian pull off the upset with her swarming style and power?

We don't see it. Shevchenko is simply on another level with her only two losses in the last decade coming in a higher weight class against the greatest women's fighter of all time in Nunes. 

Bullet's movement, ability to maintain range, and terrific counter striking will pick apart Andrade when she applies pressure. And even if Andrade does manage to enter close quarters where she can get her hands on the champ, Shevchenko will feast with her clinch work and Muay Thai. 

Shevchenko's cautious, clinical style might not win her many fans but it wins her plenty of fights and the challenger will likely walk right into the traps she sets. 

PREDICTION: Shevchenko by KO/TKO (+280) - Of Shevchenko's 20 career wins, six have come by way of knockout, seven via submission, and seven by decision, so it's tough to predict her method of victory. That said, two of her last four wins came by KO/TKO and they were against Chookagian and Jessica Eye, who until then had never been knocked out.

Andrade's high-pressure brawling style makes her very hittable, absorbing 5.28 significant strikes per minute, and she's been knocked out three times in her career, including in the first round of her strawweight title defense against Zhang in 2019. 

 

PREDICTION: Fight to start Round 5 - No (-112) - Both of these fighters are finishers, with 15 of Andrade's 21 career wins coming by stoppage and four of Shevchenko's previous seven victories coming within the distance.

Andrade's last three wins came by way of KO/TKO within the first two rounds and, with her aggressive style, she tends to either finish her opponents or get finished herself. I don't see this fight lasting longer than 20 minutes. 

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

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