The UFC returns to the Apex in Las Vegas for Fight Night, where Rinya Nakamura is a 76% favorite over Brady Hiestand in Saturday's bantamweight bout.
My Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura predictions side with Nakamura after Hiestand's lengthy layoff, and I'll break down my free betting picks along with the latest UFC odds for Saturday, Sept. 26.
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Rinya Nakamura | 76% |
| Top pick: Fight does not go the distance | 61% |
| Prop: Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ | 35% |
| Combo: Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ + Fight ends before Round 3 | 37% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura: Nakamura (76% Probability)
The biggest question heading into this fight is how Brady Hiestand will look after more than two years away. He's returning for the first time since June 2024 following the second ACL surgery of his career.
Hiestand is 3-1 in the UFC, but all three wins came against fighters no longer in the promotion. Rinya Nakamura is a clear step up and owns the better combination of wrestling, speed, and power. I'm backing Nakamura, with the finish market offering an even more appealing angle.
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura top pick: Fight does not go the distance (61% Probability)
Nakamura entered the UFC known primarily for his wrestling, but the Japanese fighter has developed into a ferocious striker who isn't afraid to stand and trade in the center of the cage.
Should he return to his wrestling roots, Nakamura has the edge there as well, averaging 2.58 takedowns with 81% accuracy. Hiestand likes to wrestle himself offensively, but with a 42% takedown defense, he's much more likely to end up on his back.
Eight of Hiestand's 11 professional fights have ended by knockout or submission, while seven of Nakamura's 11 bouts have also ended before the final bell.
COVERS INTEL: Nakamura has outstruck his opponents 128-71 across his five UFC fights. Hiestand has been outstruck in three of his four UFC bouts.Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura prop: Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ (35% Probability)
Nakamura has finished two of his last four victories in roughly the opening minute, and I don't think Hiestand will be able to handle the speed difference after such a lengthy layoff.
Nakamura looks like a potential rising star at bantamweight and trains with one of the world's top MMA teams. Hiestand, meanwhile, is trying to find his footing again after a second ACL surgery. Nakamura should make this one look easy with his second straight knockout.
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura combo
Nakamura is the sharper, more dangerous fighter, and I expect him to fight like it from the opening bell. The American Top Team product should move forward, pressure Hiestand, and force exchanges against an opponent who hasn't competed in more than two years.
I could see another very early knockout for Nakamura, especially if Hiestand struggles with the speed difference. If the finish doesn't come immediately, I still expect Nakamura's pressure and power to eventually take over. I'm pairing Nakamura by KO/TKO/DQ with the fight ending before Round 3.
Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Brady Hiestand | Rinya Nakamura |
| To win outright | 25% | 76% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 8% | 35% |
| To win by decision | 10% | 33% |
| To win by submission | 11% | 15% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 42% |
No 61% |
Odds as of Sept. 25.
Nakamura is the big betting favorite, though his odds of winning by KO (34%) or decision (33%) are nearly identical. Given his speed and striking advantages, combined with Hiestand returning from a two-year layoff and another ACL surgery, the knockout is the much more appealing method-of-victory angle.
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Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura tale of the tape
| Brady Hiestand | Rinya Nakamura | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-7 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 71 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 9-2 | Record | 10-1 |
| 4 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Hiestand owns small physical advantages, standing an inch taller with a three-inch reach edge. Those measurements don't erase Nakamura's advantages in speed and power, however, especially with Hiestand returning from another major knee injury. His movement and explosiveness after a second ACL surgery will be worth watching from the opening bell.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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