My Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Payton Talbott prediction breaks down the co-main event of UFC 332 at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, where Talbott looks to add another former champion to his resume.
The fast-handed prospect faces a declining Figueiredo, who enters after losing four of his last five fights. Check out the latest UFC odds and free picks for Saturday's middleweight showdown.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott predictions for UFC 332
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Talbott | 85% |
| Talbott by KO/TKO | 42% |
| Fight to end before Round 2 - YES | 31% |
| Method of finish KO/TKO + Fight to end before Round 2 - YES | 3.33x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott: Talbott (85% Probability)
Figueiredo is 1-4 over his last five fights and has become increasingly reliant on his grappling at bantamweight, while Talbott has rebounded from his loss to Raoni Barcelos with consecutive victories over Felipe Lima and Henry Cejudo.
This is a difficult matchup for the former champion, who lacks the mobility and activity to consistently contend with Talbott’s speed and volume. Unless Figueiredo can repeatedly get this fight to the mat, Talbott should overwhelm him in the striking exchanges.
Figueiredo vs Talbott top pick: Talbott by KO/TKO (42% Probability)
Figueiredo’s declining activity is particularly concerning against a fighter who can maintain Talbott’s pace. Talbott lands nearly six significant strikes per minute while absorbing only three, and his length and combination punching should force Figueiredo to work considerably harder than he has in recent fights.
If Talbott keeps him working at range and steadily increases the pressure, Figueiredo will fold.
COVERS INTEL: Figueiredo has been outlanded in significant strikes in each of his last five fights, while Talbott averages nearly six significant strikes landed per minute. Figueiredo vs Talbott prop: Fight to end before Round 2 - YES (31% Probability)
I expect this fight to end before Round 2. Figueiredo’s best chance is to close distance immediately and turn this into a grappling match, but doing so forces him to engage with Talbott rather than settle into the slow pace he's preferred lately.
If Figueiredo can’t establish control early, Talbott’s speed, volume, and combination punching should quickly become overwhelming.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott combo
Talbott’s speed and volume will expose Figueiredo’s declining activity early. Figueiredo has increasingly struggled to match his opponents’ output, and Talbott should force him to work at a much faster pace immediately.
If Figueiredo cannot establish his grappling and slow the fight down, Talbott’s combination punching should quickly begin to accumulate damage, forcing a stoppage before the second round.
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Deiveson Figueiredo | Payton Talbott |
| To win outright | 18% | 85% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 6% | 42% |
| To win by decision | 10% | 41% |
| To win by submission | 6% | 11% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 45% |
No 61% |
Odds as of 10-1.
Talbott is a commanding 85% favorite, leaving Figueiredo with just an 18% chance of pulling off the upset. Interestingly, the market is nearly split on how Talbott gets it done, with his 42% KO/TKO probability narrowly exceeding his 41% decision probability.
The fight ending inside the distance is favored at 61%, which supports my pick for Talbott getting the stoppage.
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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott tale of the tape
| Deiveson Figueiredo | Payton Talbott | |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | Age | 28 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 68 inches | Reach | 70.5 inches |
| 25-7-1 | Record | 11-1 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 9 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Talbott has considerable physical advantages, standing five inches taller with a 2.5-inch reach advantage and being 10 years younger than Figueiredo.
The former champion brings significantly more experience and a more diverse finishing résumé, but Talbott’s size, youth, and seven knockouts in 11 victories reinforce his advantages.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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