UFC 255 public betting, line movement and sharp money

Nov 21, 2020 |
UFC 255 public betting, line movement and sharp money
Deiveson Figueiredo opened as the -250 favorite over Alex Perez for the main event at UFC 255, but on Thursday morning that line moved to Figueiredo -270/Perez +230.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Deiveson Figueiredo opened as the -250 favorite over Alex Perez for the main event at UFC 255, but on Thursday morning that line moved to Figueiredo -270/Perez +230.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

UFC betting is back on the odds board, with a big Saturday card for UFC 255 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. It’s another fanless event, headlined by the flyweight title bout between champion Deiveson Figueiredo and challenger Alex Perez.

Multiple oddsmakers talked UFC 255 line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this action report on UFC 255 betting, with sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement, up through the main card’s 10 p.m. ET Saturday start.

Who Are People Betting to Win Figueiredo vs Perez?

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: As the five-bout main card gets underway, BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said the main event is at Figueiredo -275/Perez +225. "Tickets are really close, actually Perez has a handful more. Money running 3/1 on Figueiredo."

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: PointsBet USA opened this title bout at Figueiredo -290/Perez +200 and is now at -315/+220. Figueiredo is taking 72 percent of tickets and 81 percent of money. "The main event and co-main are very lopsided on the favorites," PointsBet USA's Patrick Eichner said.

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Figuereido is -286 to to Perez's +215 at DraftKings, where ticket count and money bet are both approaching 9/1 on the favorite.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Eric Osterman, manager and oddsmaker at The SuperBook at Westgate, said this title bout opened at Figueiredo -250/Perez +210, and it's now -280/+240. "We have public money on the favorite, on straight bets and parlays."


Figueiredo opened -250 to Perez’s +215 at Circa Sports, and on Thursday morning, the line is up to Figueiredo -270/Perez +230.

“Most of the action has been coming in on Figueiredo since we opened our line Oct. 31,” Kalikas said. “He's also one of most popular parlay pieces for this card. Perez is starting to get some love as we get closer to fight day, but we'll more than likely need the challenger to pull off the upset win.”

Who Are People Betting to Win Shevchenko vs Maia?

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Valentina Shevchenko is a massive -1,800 favorite, with Jennifer Maia correspondingly a +950 underdog at BetMGM Nevada. With Shevchenko such a heavy price, those making straight bets are taking fliers on the big 'dog. "Tickets 13/1 in favor of Maia, money 3/1 in favor of Maia," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said. "The big favorite is in the parlays. Way more parlay tickets and money on the favorite."

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Valentina Shevchenko moved from -1,000 to -2,000 at PointsBet USA, and despite that massive price, tickets are 6/1 and money almost 9/1 on the favorite. Jennifer Maia is a +825 underdog.

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Valentina Shevchenko is a massive -2,000 chalk at DraftKings, and while she's landing 79 percent of tickets, she's only getting 52 percent of money. Jennifer Maia is a +950 underdog, but she's seeing flier money, taking 48 percent of cash.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Valentina Shevchenko is sitting -1,500 at FanDuel, with Jennifer Maia +870, and plenty of bettors are taking fliers on the big upset, not willing to swallow the huge price on Shevchenko. Maia is taking 73 percent of tickets and 56 percent of money.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: Valentina Shevchenko is up to -2,000 from an opener of -1,200 at The SuperBook, with Jennifer Maia a +1,000 underdog. "Big parlay money on the favorite. We need an upset somehow," SuperBook manager/oddsmaker Eric Osterman said.


Valentina Shevchenko opened a massive -1,225 favorite against Jennifer Maia (+810), and the line is much more massive now, at Shevchenko -1,700/Maia +1,050. That’s not creating much straight-bet interest in the favorite at Circa Sports.

“Mostly parlay liability on Shevchenko up to this point,” Kalikas said. “With the price continuing to rise, we'll see a decent amount of straight action on Maia that will help to offset some of our exposure.” 

Who Are People Betting to Win Perry vs Means?

UPDATE 10 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The co-main is currently at Mike Perry -125/Tim Means +105 at BetMGM Nevada, and earlier, there was a $105,000 bet on Perry at -105. "Tickets close here, too, but the money is 20/1 on Perry, with that six-figure wager," BetMGM's Scott Shelton said.

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Mike Perry dropped from -165 to -115 at PointsBet USA, with Tim Means now just a -110 underdog on two-way action. Perry is grabbing 53 percent of bets and Means 56 percent of money.

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: This bout is approaching a pick 'em at DraftKings, with the current price of Mike Perry -115/Tim Means -108. The short underdog Means is taking 53 percent of bets and 64 percent of cash.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: The SuperBook opened this matchup at Mike Perry -140/Tim Means +120, and it's now at Perry -125/Means +105. "We took some sharp action on Means early. Haven't had much back on the other side yet," SuperBook manager/oddsmaker Eric Osterman said, before moving on to the round totoal. "We have some public action on Under 2.5 (-130), but not enough to move the line yet. We need Perry and the Over."


This bout figures to be much more competitive, as demonstrated by Circa’s odds and the action on both sides. Mike Perry opened -135 to Tim Means’ +115, and the fight is now at Perry -155/+135.

“Lots of two-way action on this one,” Kalikas said. “Early on, we were seeing most of the money come in on Means, but now that it’s fight week, we're seeing a little more Perry support from our bettors. It’s a very popular fight at the betting window.”


Other UFC 252 Betting Action

UPDATE 7:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: Cynthia Calvillo opened -215 and is now -250 at PointsBet USA, with Katlyn Chookagian a +195 underdog. Tickets are 2/1 and money almost 3/1 on Calvillo.

UPDATE 5:45 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The battle of the Brandons, Moreno vs. Royval atop the preliminary card, is getting two-way action at DraftKings, where Moreno is -175 and Royval +135. Fifty-four percent of bets are on the 'dog Royval, while 58 percent of money is on Moreno.

UPDATE 1:30 P.M. ET SATURDAY: The Mauricio Rua-Paul Craig bout is drawing two-way action at FanDuel, with a lean toward +154 underdog Rua, who is getting 54 percent of bets and 57 percent of money. Craig is currently a -184 favorite.

UPDATE 10:30 P.M. ET FRIDAY: SuperBook manager/oddsmaker Eric Osterman said the first fight on the five-bout main card for UFC 255 is drawing two-way action. Paul Craig opened -190 to Mauricio Rua's +170, and it's now -180/+160. "Straight bets are more on Rua, and there are more parlays on Craig. We will need Rua to kill the parlays heading into the big fights," Osterman said.


Kalikas is eager to see the bout between Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval, atop UFC 255’s preliminary card, ahead of the five-bout main card. The fight opened at Moreno -185/Royval +160 and is up a notch Thursday to Moreno -195/Royval +170.

“Awesome flyweight scrap. One of the most intriguing fights on this card, and we're seeing a decent amount of action,” Kalikas said. “Royval pulling off two impressive upset wins to start his UFC career has bettors flocking to the window to grab the perceived ‘dog value once again. That said, opposing opinions are not hesitating to lay the price on Moreno, due to his recent rise to the top of the division and evident improvement.

“This matchup has Fight of the Night written all over it.”

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