Mauricio Rua vs. Paul Craig II will be on the main card UFC 255 betting on Saturday, November 21 at the UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.
This will be a rematch after the two light heavyweights fought to a draw a year ago. UFC odds have Craig installed as the favorite at -188 while Rua comes back at +152.
We break down the UFC betting odds for this battle and give our best picks and predictions for Rua vs. Craig at UFC 255.
Rua vs Craig Fight Odds
|Method of Victory||Mauricio Rua||Paul Craig|
|Win by KO/TKO||+700||+950|
|Win by points||+320||+200|
|Win by submission||+1,000||+250|
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Rua vs Craig Betting Preview
Maurício "Shogun" Rua is the No. 14-ranked light heavyweight and is coming off a split-decision win over Antônio Rogério Nogueira in July. In his last seven fights, he has five wins with one loss and the draw against Craig.
For a guy who first made an international name for himself by defeating Rampage Jackson all the way back in 2005, Rua is still relatively young at 38. A strong boxer who likes to rely on his overhand right and leg kicks, Shogun has 27 wins, with 21 of those coming via KO/TKO.
Paul "Bearjew" Craig is the former BAMMA World Light Heavyweight Champion and is currently No. 15 in the UFC Light Heavyweight rankings. The 32-year-old is coming off a first-round submission win over Gadzhimurad Antigulov in July and has gone 5-4-1 since joining the UFC in 2016.
Craig is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the division, with 12 of his 13 career wins coming via submission. The most impressive victory on his resume was a last-second triangle choke against Magomed Ankalaev, handing Ankalaev the only loss of his career.
Rua vs Craig Tale of the Tape
|Mauricio Rua||Paul Craig|
|205 lbs||Weight||205 lbs|
|76 inches||Reach||76 inches|
|27-11-1 (21 KO)||Record||13-4-1 (1 KO)|
Rua vs Craig UFC Prediction and Betting Pick
PREDICTION: Craig to win by submission +250 - It's wild to think that just 12 months ago Rua was a -270 favorite against Craig for the first matchup, and after the draw – and a subsequent win – is now a +152 underdog. Although the first fight between these two light heavyweights was a back-and-forth contest, Rua only looked good when he had top control on the ground.
Rua has BJJ background but his ground game is nowhere near the level of a submission expert like Craig. And when it came to standing up – an area Shogun was supposed to have the advantage in – Rua looked slow and landed far fewer significant strikes than Craig.
Look for Craig to be more assertive and attempt more submissions than he did in the previous match. Back Craig to get the win and with an incredible 12 of his 13 wins coming by sub, taking him on the method to win prop gives the best betting value.
Where Can I Bet on UFC 255 Odds?
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