UFC Fight Night Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov Picks and Predictions: Youth is Served

An aging Douglas Silva de Andrade will prove to be no match for the fresher and younger Said Nurmagomedov, but that doesn't mean he'll wind up on his back at the end of the fight. We like Nurmagomedov to win by decision.

Last Updated: Jul 9, 2022 8:04 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Said Nurmagomedov UFC Fight Night
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Said Nurmagomedov vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade is scheduled for three rounds in the bantamweight division as a featured undercard bout on tonight’s UFC Fight Night in Las Vegas. Nurmagomedov continues his impressive run up the bantamweight rankings, and he’ll have to show out against the always-tough Andrade.

The surging Nurmagomedov is a strong -325 favorite in what should be a competitive bout. Andrade, who has hung tough with some of the division’s best fighters, is a +265 underdog.

Our betting picks break down which fighter has the ultimate edge.

Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov fight odds

Live odds courtesy of bet365.

Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov method of victory odds

Method of Victory Douglas Silva de Andrade Said Nurmagomedov
To win by KO/TKO +650 +225
To win by Points +600 +215
To win by Submission +1,400 +300
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on July 7, 2022.

Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov betting preview

Thanks in part to his aggressive finishing skills, Nurmagomedov has quickly made a name for himself as a fighter to watch in the bantamweight division. Three of his last four wins have come inside the first round and he has won nine of his last 10, with his most recent being an impressive submission victory over Cody Stamann last January.

Landing 4.75 strikes per minute and only absorbing 2.35 strikes in return, Nurmagomedov has shown a strong sense of awareness in his attack. While he has no relation to Khabib or Umar, he does display the same kind of discipline that has carried them to success. In addition to his excellent striking and defense, he’s the fresher fighter by seven years and hasn’t seen the wear and tear his opponent has.

Even as he inches closer to 40, Andrade is coming off consecutive efforts where he scored bonuses for his performance. He submitted Sergey Morozov last February and knocked Gaetano Pirrello out with a beautiful shot in October 2021. He’s gone 3-3 in his last six fights, but two of those losses came against division elites like Rob Font and Petr Yan.

With 33 fights to his name, there isn’t much Andrade hasn’t seen. He’s a respectable striker who lands 3.83 strikes per minute but only at 39% accuracy. That said, he’s scored four knockdowns in his past two fights and he performs well on the ground, where he has a 45% takedown accuracy.

Both fighters have confidence in their power, but Nurmagomedov has the fresher legs and better defense to leave Andrade open for counters. In Andrade’s case, he’ll have to make his big shots count and hope he can force his younger opponent to the ground. We’ll have to see how Andrade reacts to Nurmagomedov's pace, especially with the wear and tear of a long career set to show at any given moment.

Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov tale of the tape

Douglas Silva de Andrade   Said Nurmagomedov
37 Age 30
5-foot-6 Height 5-foot-8
135 lbs Weight 135 inches
68 inches Reach 70 inches
28-4 (20 KO) Record 15-2 (4 KO)

Silva de Andrade vs Nurmagomedov UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

Though his pressure style might play right into Andrade’s heavy hands, we believe Nurmagomedov’s methodical approach will carry him to victory. The mixture of his volume and physicality is sure to tax the aging Andrade. While one punch can change a fight, it’s hard to land it when your opponent is inside the optimal range for such a strike and is sapping endurance with each passing second.

If Andrade doesn’t hurt Nurmagomedov early on, he’ll be worn down and left in the dust. The threat of a fight-changing shot will linger, but desperation and fatigue will set in as the younger fighter starts to pull away. There’s a chance that if Andrade lands that big shot late in the fight, it won’t carry the intended effect.

Youth will be served as Nurmagomedov outlasts Andrade in this crossroads fight.

Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov to Win (-320 at DraftKings)

Because Nurmagomedov operates at a measured pace and doesn’t take too many risks, we can see him easing off the gas if he starts outpacing Andrade. He is capable of some rapid stoppages, but we don’t see him trying to land another spinning heel kick versus a big striker.

They say pressure busts pipes, and while we expect Andrade to relent to that pressure, he’ll make it to the end of the fight. The defensively superior Nurmagomedov will outwork Andrade each round and tease a stoppage, though settling for a decision win. We like Nurmagomedov to win by decision for a beefy +250 pick-up.

Pick: Said Nurmagomedov by decision (+250 at DraftKings)

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