Nursulton Ruziboev will try to solve the puzzle that is Michael “Venom” Page when the two middleweight contenders collide on Saturday as the featured bout of UFC Fight Night Paris.
Despite being 39-years-old, Page’s vaunted speed and elusiveness seem to be as good as ever, as he enters this contest on a three-fight win streak. UFC odds currently favor him with a 61% chance of emerging victorious against Ruziboev.
It’s definitely an intriguing style clash, but I’m backing “MVP” to once again frustrate his opponent and capitalize on mistakes in my official Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev predictions and free picks for September 5.
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Michael Page | 61% |
| Top pick: Fight does not go the distance | 42% |
| Prop: Page wins by TKO | 18% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev: Page moneyline (61% Probability)
If Page can keep this fight standing, he’s going to enjoy a massive edge in striking, having just defeated a trio of more credible opponents in his last three fights.
A master of timing and distance management, it’s going to be a difficult task for Ruziboev to track him down and secure takedowns, which he will almost certainly need if he expects to win this fight.
This fight is going to come down to the speed advantage, and even though Page is 39-years-old, he still has more than enough to comfortably dance around the slow and plodding Ruziboev.
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev top pick: Fight does not go the distance (42% Probability)
Regardless of who wins, this fight feels like the victor is going to find a way to finish the fight inside the distance.
For Page, he has 13 career wins by knockout, and even though his four UFC wins have all come by decision, Ruziboev’s tall-man-defense seems tailor-made for him to get nailed by Page’s signature right hand.
On the flip side, Ruziboev has a 92% finish rate in 37 career wins, which includes 21 submission victories. His only real chance here is to secure takedowns, and if he can do that, there’s a decent chance he’ll be able to snatch up a submission.
In both scenarios, this fight likely doesn’t go to the judges’ scorecards.
COVERS INTEL: Despite Ruziboev being two inches taller, it’s actually Page who will enjoy a three inch reach advantage.Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev prop: Page wins by TKO (18% Probability)
Before signing with the UFC, “MVP” held a respectable 76% finish rate in his career, with 62% of those coming by way of knockout. He definitely has the ability to get back to his finishing ways, but lately, he’s been facing a lot of criticism for just doing the bare minimum to win fights.
I’m expecting a more aggressive version of him in this spot as he faces a step down in competition, and also feels the pressure of needing to deliver an exciting fight for the fans.
Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Michael Page | Nursulton Ruziboev |
| To win outright | 64% | 39% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 22% | 13% |
| To win by decision | 47% | 23% |
| To win by submission | 3% | 17% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 63% |
Under 2.5 42% |
Odds as of 9-4.
The Page by decision prop seems most likely based on recent form, but I’m feeling this knockout prop for him at much more interesting odds.
Ruziboev has only ever been knocked out once in his career, but the writing seems to be on the wall. He’s been seriously hurt or knocked down in two of his last four fights, and seems likely to get drawn into a big shot that will put him down soon. I’m hoping this is the spot, because I’ll be backing it.
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Michael Page vs Nursulton Ruziboev tale of the tape
| Michael Page | Nursulton Ruziboev | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-5 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 79 inches | Reach | 76 inches |
| 25-3 | Record | 37-9-2 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 21 |
The most interesting stat is that Page has a three-inch reach advantage despite fighting an opponent who is 6-foot-5, but the most important stat to me is the number of fights that Ruziboev has as a professional. On paper, he’s seven years younger than “MVP,” but in fighter years, the 50-pro fights have taken their toll, and he’s not likely the fresher man.
To put things into perspective, there are almost 800 athletes on the current UFC roster, and Ruziboev is No. 3 in terms of most fights. The other two, Bobby Green and Jim Miller, are in their 40s.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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