Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura predictions take center stage in a featured bantamweight bout on the UFC Fight Night undercard at Shanghai Indoor Stadium as the UFC heads to China.
Former RIZIN standout Asakura continues to rebuild himself after a disappointing UFC debut and should stay on track in this one.
Check out the latest UFC odds and our free picks for this bantamweight bout.
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Kai Asakura | 79% |
| Top pick: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO | 65% |
| Prop: Kai Asakura Round 2 | 16% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura: Kai Asakura (79% Probability)
Asakura being a 79% favorite is still playable. I have seen enough of Aoriqileng to know that he’s a lower-tier gatekeeper, and he’s the right opponent for Asakura to look good against as he tries to re-establish himself after his disastrous flyweight debut. If nothing else, Asakura’s heavy hands should be enough to give Aoriqileng pause, and the former RIZIN champion has more than enough in his arsenal to overcome his opponent.
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura top pick: Asakura to win by KO/TKO (65% Probability)
Asakura to win by KO/TKO is my top pick. Aoriqileng is coming off a one-sided KO loss to Cody Haddon where he was completely outclassed, and he was also stopped by Aiemann Zahabi, a fighter not known for his aggression or finishing prowess, in one of his higher-profile bouts. He’s durable, but not savvy enough to last when he’s in trouble. Asakura’s pressure will open up an opportunity to put together a string of strikes that results in a stoppage.
COVERS INTEL: Aoriqileng is 4-5 with one no contest in the UFC and hasn't recorded consecutive victories since 2022.Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura prop: Asakura Round 2 (16% Probability)
Asakura in Round 2 is my favorite prop. Aoriqileng can stall momentum with his physicality and offensive grappling, but he struggles when opponents consistently pressure him and force him to fight at a higher pace. Asakura should spend the opening round chopping away with leg kicks and heavy combinations before increasing his output once Aoriqileng begins slowing down. I expect the accumulated damage to create an opportunity for Asakura to close the show in Round 2.
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura odds
| Method of Victory | Aoriqileng | Kai Asakura |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | 21% | 79% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 8% | 65% |
| To win by decision | 8% | 50% |
| To win by submission | 5% | 7% |
| Round of finish | Fight ends before Round 2 39% |
Fight ends before Round 3 57% |
Odds as of 8-28.
Kalshi gives this fight a 57% probability of ending before Round 3, which lines up with my expectation that Asakura eventually breaks Aoriqileng down. I’m expecting Aoriqileng to survive the opening round before Asakura’s pressure and power create the finish in Round 2.
Aoriqileng vs Kai Asakura tale of the tape
| Aoriqileng | Kai Asakura | |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 5'7" | Height | 5'8" |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 69.3" | Reach | 69" |
| 26-13 (1 NC) | Record | 22-6 |
| 9 | Wins by KO | 14 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Aoriqileng and Asakura are nearly identical physically, with only an inch separating them in height and virtually no difference in reach. The bigger disparity comes in finishing ability, as Asakura has 14 knockout victories and built his reputation on his power in RIZIN.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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