Former women's strawweight title challenger Yan Xiaonan looks to delight the home crowd and get back in the win column when she tangles with emerging contender Denise Gomes in the co-main event of UFC Fight Night Shanghai on Saturday, August 29 at the Shanghai Indoor Arena in China.
Current Kalshi markets favor Xiaonan, who shows a 58% win probability versus just 42% for Gomes. This should be a highly competitive back-and-forth fight, and while I'm siding with the Chinese fighter, my Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes predictions and free betting picks expect this one to go the distance.
Check out the latest UFC odds before placing your bets.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Yan Xiaonan | 58% |
| Best bet: Fight to go the distance | 73% |
| Prop: Yan Xiaonan wins by decision | 49% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes: Yan Xiaonan (58% Probability)
Xiaonan has simply faced a much higher level of competition in her career, having mixed it up with divisional stars such as Zhang Weili and Virna Jandiroba while also holding a win over current UFC champion Mackenzie Dern. She has never lost a UFC fight to an opponent ranked outside the Top 10 and should benefit greatly from fighting at home on Saturday.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes top pick: Fight to go the distance (73% Probability)
Both fighters match up well stylistically and are tough enough to handle whatever the other throws their way. Xiaonan has gone to decision in five of her last six fights and has only been finished once in the past 16 years. Gomes, meanwhile, has seen four of her last five fights reach the judges' scorecards and hasn't been stopped since losing her professional debut in 2017, when she was only 17 years old.
Strawweights aren't exactly known for massive knockout power, and with the two fighters combining for just one submission victory across 31 combined wins, the grappling edge is unlikely to be the deciding factor. This one is going the distance.
COVERS INTEL: Despite having six wins in the UFC, Denise Gomes has never defeated a Top-10-ranked opponent, while Xiaonan has already defeated three Top-10-ranked opponents.Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes prop: Xiaonan wins by decision (49% Probability)
Xiaonan has proven to be a serious problem on the feet for anyone, even scoring a knockdown of legendary champion Zhang Weili in a title fight. Despite that striking prowess, she's finished just one of her nine UFC wins and is more of a point fighter than a potent finisher. Add in the fact that Gomes hasn't been stopped in nine years, and if Xiaonan wins, it's very likely to come by decision.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes odds
| Method of Victory | Yan Xiaonan | Denise Gomes |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | 58% | 42% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 14% | 12% |
| To win by decision | 49% | 27% |
| To win by submission | 5% | 7% |
| Total rounds | Fight ends before Round 2 18% |
Fight ends before Round 3 26% |
Odds as of 8-28.
I'm picking Yan Xiaonan to win this fight and, as stated above, taking her by decision to gain some additional value, but I understand this should be a close and competitive fight. The good news is that the fight is in China, and a close decision could favor the local fighter. Look for Xiaonan to win by split or majority decision.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including UFC!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes tale of the tape
| Yan Xiaonan | Denise Gomes | |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 26 |
| 5'5" | Height | 5'2" |
| Women's Strawweight | Weight Class | Women's Strawweight |
| 63" | Reach | 63" |
| 19-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | 12-3-0 |
| 8 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 1 | Wins by submission | 0 |
The most concerning number here is that Denise Gomes is 11 years younger, which is unquestionably an advantage. On the plus side for Xiaonan, women's fighters tend to age more gracefully than their male counterparts, so being 37 isn't a deal-breaker for me. She'll also enjoy a three-inch height advantage, allowing her to punch downward despite both fighters owning the same 63-inch reach.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
