Bantamweight contenders are set to square off on Saturday when former UFC title challenger Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Chinese standout Song Yadong in the main event of UFC Fight Night Shanghai.
Both fighters enter this contest coming off wins over Deiveson Figueiredo in their most recent outings, but despite Song being the one to finish him, it's actually Nurmagomedov who is taking most of the action this week, currently holding an 84% win probability according to Kalshi.
It's hard to disagree that the Russian ace should be favored, but with not much value left there, we'll be looking at specific props to lead the way in this week's official Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong predictions and free picks for August 29.
Check out the latest UFC odds before making your picks.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong predictions for UFC Fight Night
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Umar Nurmagomedov | 85% |
| Top pick: Fight goes the distance | 61% |
| Prop: Umar Nurmagomedov wins by decision | 64% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong: Nurmagomedov (85% Probability)
Nurmagomedov's elite-level wrestling and top control should suffocate and disrupt Song's striking arsenal. Currently 8-1 in the UFC, with his lone defeat coming in a Fight of the Night performance against then-champion Merab Dvalishvili, the 30-year-old Russian looks poised to earn his third straight decision victory.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong top pick: Fight goes the distance (61% Probability)
The downside of being such a high-level grappler is that Nurmagomedov can kill time off the clock without inflicting significant damage. Similar to his mentors, Islam Makhachev and Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar is comfortable racking up control time without forcing a finish.
As a result, six of his last seven fights have gone to decision, including five straight. Song has likewise gone to the judges' scorecards in four of his last fights, and the way these two match up screams fight goes the distance.
COVERS INTEL: Song Yadong has not been legitimately finished in a fight for more than 10 years.Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong prop: Nurmagomedov wins by decision (64% Probability)
Nurmagomedov knows how to win fights, but he's proven to be primarily a decision threat. In 20 career victories as a professional, he's won 11 by decision, compared to only two by knockout and seven by submission.
The problem in this matchup is that Song has never been submitted in 13 years and 33 professional fights. With the submission threat diminished, that leaves a knockout or decision, and considering Nurmagomedov owns just a 10% career knockout rate, the decision is the more likely outcome.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong odds
| Method of Victory | Umar Nurmagomedov | Song Yadong |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | 85% | 15% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 12% | 9% |
| To win by decision | 61% | 7% |
| To win by submission | 15% | 3% |
| Rounds | Fight ends before Round 3 25% |
Fight ends before Round 4 25% |
Nurmagomedov winning by decision remains the most likely method of victory, and the round markets tell a similar story. Kalshi gives the fight just a 25% probability of ending before Round 3 and the same 25% chance of ending before Round 4. With both fighters trending toward the scorecards and Song proving extremely difficult to finish, the market clearly expects this fight to go deep.
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Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong tale of the tape
| Umar Nurmagomedov | Song Yadong | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 28 |
| 5'8" | Height | 5'8" |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 69" | Reach | 67" |
| 20-1-0 | Record | 23-9-1 |
| 2 | Wins by KO | 9 |
| 7 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Nurmagomedov and Song are identical in height, while Umar owns a two-inch reach advantage and carries the far cleaner professional record into Shanghai. Song has substantially more knockout victories, while Nurmagomedov's seven career submissions underline the grappling threat that shapes this matchup.
Both fighters enter off wins over Deiveson Figueiredo. Song scored a finish, while Nurmagomedov earned a unanimous decision. The biggest difference between these fighters is their overall success rate: Nurmagomedov owns a 20-1 professional record, while Song enters at 23-9-1.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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