UFC Fight Night Rozenstruik vs Almeida Picks and Predictions: Could Rozenstruik Play Spoiler?

Jailton Almeida is a heavy favorite in his main event bout with Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and while all signs point to him getting the job done, our UFC betting picks aren't ruling out a surprise knockout from the underdog — read more below.

Last Updated: May 13, 2023 2:07 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Jailton Almeida is the main event for UFC Fight Night betting today from Charlotte, North Carolina.

This is a crossroads fight for both ranked heavyweights, with Rozenstruik trying to maintain his spot in the Top 10 and Almeida hoping to emerge as a future title contender.

Almeida is the overwhelming favorite with UFC odds sitting between -490 and -590 on the Brazilian while Rozenstruik comes back at +400.

Check out my best free betting picks for Saturday's UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida below.

Rozenstruik vs Almeida fight odds

Rozenstruik vs Almeida method of victory odds

Method of Victory Jairzinho Rozenstruik Jailton Almeida
To win by KO/TKO +500 +220
To win by Points +2,600 +950
To win by Submission +3,300 -105
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of May 10, 2023.

Rozenstruik vs Almeida picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Rozenstruik vs Almeida betting preview

Jairzinho Rozenstruik looked like a future heavyweight contender earlier in his career before Francis Ngannou sparked him in the first round in 2020.

Since that knockout loss, he's gone 3-3 but he is coming off a 23-second knockout of Chris Daukas which earned him the third Performance of the Night bonus of his career. 

Bigi Boy is a former professional kickboxer that racked up a 76-8-1 record in the sport before transitioning to MMA. With that background, it's no surprise that the 35-year-old has highly-technical kickboxing ability and scary power in his hands. 

Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida is on a 13-fight winning streak, including five in a row inside the octagon.

He's coming off a second-round knockout of Shamil Abdurakhimov which earned him back-to-back Performance of the Night bonuses after he submitted Anton Turkalj in the first round last September.

Almeida began his MMA career as a welterweight in 2012 before taking a four-year hiatus from the sport and returning as a middleweight. In recent years he has bounced between light heavyweight and heavyweight, claiming the Thunder Fight championship at 205 pounds before moving up to heavyweight for his last three bouts in the UFC.  

With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Almeida is a grappling specialist and 11 of his 18 career wins have come by way of submission. He averages a whopping 6.73 takedowns per 15 minutes and 96% of his significant strikes have come on the mat.

Rozenstruik vs Almeida tale of the tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik   Jailton Almeida
35 Age 31
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-3
261 lbs Weight 232 lbs
79 inches Reach 79 inches
13-4 (12 KOs) Record 18-2 (7 KOs)

Rozenstruik vs Almeida UFC prediction and best bet

It's easy to see why Almeida is the favorite here despite far less experience at this level. Rozenstruik doesn't fight with enough pressure or throw with much volume and his ground game is virtually non-existent. That last part is especially problematic against somebody like Almeida who has powerful takedowns and is dominant from the top position. 

Curtis Blaydes took Rozenstruik down three times and controlled him for more than six minutes and even Ciryl Gane (who was outwrestled by Ngannou) took him down twice and had more than four minutes of control.

Even in Rozenstruik's victory against Alistair Overeem back in 2019, he was controlled for more than eight minutes and clearly headed for a loss before he caught Overeem with a last-second KO. 

That said, while Almeida's elite grappling makes him a tough matchup for Rozenstruik, this line is way too steep. I'm not willing to consider odds this lopsided, especially on a relatively inexperienced fighter in a division where anybody can get starched at any time. I'm expecting Almeida to win this one but this is a play I would avoid. 

Prediction: Jailton Almeida moneyline (-490 at DraftKings)

Often when you bet on a massive favorite, it's more profitable to look at method of victory props.

The problem is that while Almeida is expected to submit Rozenstruik (+100 at FanDuel), he's just as capable of winning via ground and pound. In fact, while six of his last 11 victories came by sub, the other five were by KO/TKO. 

There's better value in looking at the other side and considering Rozenstruik to win by KO/TKO. Sure, Bigi Boy seems to have reached his plateau but he also still has devastating knockout power which we saw in his last fight. 

While Rozenstruik is awful at getting back up, his build and distance management have actually helped him maintain an impressive 75% takedown defense.

He won't be able to defend all of Almeida's takedown attempts but even if he can defend a couple, he might buy himself enough time on his feet to end this bout. Especially if he uses his timing and crisp counter-striking to catch Almeida on an entry. 

Keep in mind that while Almeida has steamrolled his other foes, he has just two official UFC fights at heavyweight and another at a catchweight of 220 pounds. They were against Abdurakhimov, Parker Porter, and Turkalj who landed a total of just two significant strikes. Almeida has never been hit by someone with Rozenstruik's power before and there's no telling how he'll be able to handle it. 

All seven of Rozenstruik's wins in the promotion have come by knockout and while that won't be easy here, he has a better chance than his implied probability of 16.7% at +500. I'm not going to put a full unit on this but it's worth half a unit at these odds. 

Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO, 0.5 unit (+500 at FanDuel)

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