UFC Fight Night Charriere vs Mariscal Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Going Toe to Toe

Morgan Charriere and Chepe Mariscal are ready for war as our featured undercard attraction at this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card tonight, April 6, at Apex in Las Vegas. 

While Charriere dazzled in his last performance and is favored in this contest, Mariscal's relentless pressure and ground game might be enough to score an upset. 

UFC odds have Charriere as a -120 favorite, and Mariscal is a +100 underdog.  

Here are my free picks for Charriere vs. Mariscal at UFC Fight Night. 

Morgan Charriere vs Chepe Mariscal fight odds

Method of Victory	Charriere	Mariscal
To win outright	-135	+105
To win by KO/TKO	+250	+700
To win by decision	+255	+185
To win by submission	+1,150	+1,450
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on April 6, 2024.

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Charriere vs Mariscal picks

Fight prediction: Mariscal ML

Though winning his first two UFC fights, Chepe Mariscal can’t seem to get any love as he once again enters as an underdog. When examining Mariscal’s background, which includes extensive BJJ and wrestling credentials, it's puzzling why he's considered a slight underdog against Morgan Charriere. 

With his physicality and grappling abilities, Mariscal is unlikely to be as predictable for the Frenchman as Manolo Zecchini was and he will likely dictate the fight's pace. Additionally, Mariscal has shown some decent striking, so he won’t be overwhelmed and could hold out while attempting to slow down Charriere's activity. 

It won’t be easy, but Mariscal is gritty and unconventional and he could turn the tide when you factor in his wrestling and aggression. While Charriere may possess better technical striking, it might be his only advantage. Mariscal’s pressure and resolve will allow him to keep the fight close and position himself to use his wrestling, potentially securing takedowns that could change the course of the fight. 

Despite Charriere's flashy performance in his last win, Mariscal presents a tougher challenge and won’t be as passive due to his superior defense and skill set. His conditioning and chin will be put to the test, and we’ll have to see how he responds to an opponent who refuses to retreat and possesses enough strength to take him to the ground. 

I favor Mariscal to turn this fight into a gritty affair, capitalize on grappling opportunities, and secure another upset victory. 

Prediction: Chepe Mariscal moneyline (+100 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Under 2.5 rounds

Even though I like Mariscal to win, so many things have to go right for him to do that. Charriere is the better striker, and while he has struggled against grapplers in other promotions, Mariscal doesn’t operate with finesse. 

Charriere has never been knocked out in his professional career, whereas Marsical has been stopped inside the distance three times, with the most recent stoppage occurring at the hands of Steve Garcia four years ago. Both fighters have been scoring finishes recently, with Charriere’s last three wins being knockouts and Mariscal winning four of his last five by knockout. 

Regardless of the outcome, both fighters are aggressive with their offense and will actively seek a finish when the opportunity arises. Whether Charriere achieves it through a relentless barrage of strikes or Mariscal employs his grappling to slam him to the mat and follow up with ground-and-pound, this bout seems unlikely to reach the final bell. 

Pick: Pick (+165 at Bet99)

Charriere vs Mariscal betting preview

Mariscal is an established grappler who competed in LFA and Cage Warriors before joining the UFC in 2023. He won his last two fights, moving his career record to 15-6. In these victories, he defeated Jack Jenkins and Trevor Peek, extending his winning streak to five, dating back to 2022. Notably, both his UFC fights came on short notice, and this bout is no exception as he substitutes for Seung Woo Choi. 

On the other hand, Charriere is known for his striking prowess and has overcome a challenging start to his MMA career, where he lost three of his first five fights. Despite this, he has emerged as a featherweight prospect to watch. His UFC debut last September was particularly impressive, securing a knockout victory over Zecchini in the first round. With 11 of his 19 wins coming by knockout, Charriere demonstrates fluid striking skills. 

Charriere’s refined striking will only work if he can discern Mariscal’s pressure, and it is hard to imagine he’ll accomplish that. If Mariscal can keep the fight contained to close quarters or up against the cage to limit Charriere’s mobility, his pressure and groundwork could lead him to another win and recognition as an emerging talent. 

Morgan Charriere vs Chepe Mariscal tale of the tape

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