King Green steps into the Octagon for the fourth time this year when he faces Esteban Ribovics in a lightweight bout at UFC 332 in Salt Lake City.
Ribovics comes into the fight as a 68% favorite in the UFC odds, and I’m looking for him to find a finish in my King Green vs. Esteban Ribovics predictions.
Here are my free picks for Saturday, Oct. 3.
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics predictions for UFC 332
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Ribovics | 68% |
| Top pick: Ribovics by TKO/KO/DQ | 41% |
| Prop: Fight to end before Round 3 | 50% |
| Combo | 2.50x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win King Green vs Esteban Ribovics: Ribovics (68% Probability)
King Green enters this bout on a four-fight winning streak, but the 40-year-old will find his match in Esteban Ribovics.
The 30-year-old Argentine is younger, faster, hungrier, and able to keep up a high-volume pace through three rounds.
Green has a bad habit of keeping his hands low and eating shots, which is not a recipe for success against a technical striker with knockout power.
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics top pick: Ribovics by TKO/KO/DQ (41% Probability)
Ribovics has finished seven of his last 10 wins by knockout, and at 40 years old, Green is not a difficult target to hit.
Green has been knocked out in four of his last five defeats and was getting pieced up by Terrance McKinney in his most recent bout at UFC 329 before finding a late first-round KO of his own.
Both men like to throw a lot of punches and look for the finish, but “El Gringo” will have the upper hand in this one.
COVERS INTEL: Ribovics (7.41 SLpM) and Green (6.75 SLpM) rank second and third, respectively, in strikes landed per minute among active lightweights, pointing to a violent fight.King Green vs Esteban Ribovics prop: Fight to end before Round 3 (50% Probability)
Both men throw a ton of strikes, and neither will shy away from the center of the Octagon, which is why this one will likely end before the third round.
Each of Ribovics’ last two fights ended in R2, while 10 of Green’s last 13 bouts — including each of his last three — have finished within 10 minutes.
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics combo
I’m predicting a Ribovics KO within the first two rounds, and combining both props juices up the payout slightly.
Green is still a dangerous striker, but he leaves himself open defensively. Ribovics is technical and fast enough to capitalize and find the finish early.
King Green vs Esteban Ribovics odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | King Green | Esteban Ribovics |
| To win outright | 32% | 68% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 12% | 41% |
| To win by decision | 19% | 18% |
| To win by submission | 8% | 7% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 39% |
No 64% |
Odds as of 10-2.
Traders see a Ribovics KO as the most likely outcome.
Ribovics has secured two of his last four wins by KO, while Green has been knocked out four times over the last four years.
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King Green vs Esteban Ribovics tale of the tape
| King Green | Esteban Ribovics | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Age | 30 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Lightweight | Weight Class | Lightweight |
| 71 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 36-17-1 | Record | 16-3 |
| 13 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 10 | Wins by submission | 5 |
Both men share nearly identical physical attributes, but Ribovics will benefit from being 10 years younger than Green.
The difference in age and speed will be apparent by fight night.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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