UFC Fight Night Cerrone vs Lauzon Picks and Predictions: Cowboy Rides Off Into the Sunset

After two cancelations, Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon are set to fight on Saturday at UFC Fight Night. Cerrone remains the UFC betting favorite and if this is it for Cowboy, our picks expect him to ride off into the sunset as a winner.

Jun 18, 2022 • 08:38 ET • 4 min read
Donald Cerrone UFC Fight Night
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon goes three rounds tongiht in the lightweight division at UFC Fight Night at the Moody Center in Austin, Texas. Cowboy Cerrone is trying to ride off into the sunset, but the well-rested and battle-tested Lauzon is ready to rain on his parade.

Despite a long losing streak, Cerrone is the UFC odds favorite at -165, while Lauzon is coming off a long break of three years as a +145 underdog

Here are our free UFC picks and predictions for Cerrone vs. Lauzon on June 18.

(Editor's Note: Cerrone-Lauzon has (again) been canceled for tonight's UFC event.)

Cerrone vs Lauzon fight odds

Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Cerrone vs Lauzon method of victory odds

Method of Victory Donald Cerrone Joe Lauzon
To win by KO/TKO +170 +500
To win by Points +300 +500
To win by Submission +700 +850
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 16, 2022.

Cerrone vs Lauzon picks

Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Cerrone vs Lauzon betting preview

The third time is hopefully the charm for Cerrone and Lauzon, as the bout between two of the most exciting fighters in the promotion’s history has gone through a pair of cancellations. Time hasn’t changed the line much, as Cerrone remains the slight favorite to win what could be the last fight of his career.

Recent years haven’t been kind to Cerrone, who has been winless in his last five fights. While those have been against elite fighters and rising prospects, the writing is on the wall that he’s past the point where he’s a viable fighter. In Lauzon, he has the most winnable fight he’s had in a while, and he’s just a narrow favorite.

With slight advantages in height and reach, as well as being an active participant in the octagon, Cerrone benefits from having an opponent who will come right to him. Cowboy lands 4.43 strikes per minute and stuffs 74% of takedown attempts, which serves him well against a defensively deficient and takedown-oriented Lauzon. 

As far as Lauzon is concerned, he’s been out of the octagon for so long that it’s forgivable to think he retired. Before Lauzon did step away, he beat Jonathan Pearce in 2019 and was already showing signs of a similar decline. 

This could end up being a tale of two fights. Lauzon is a front-runner and Cerrone is a stronger finisher, so the ebb and flow in the first few minutes is critical to see how the fight will unfold. With both fighters so worn, there’s a going feeling the fight turns into a slugfest if neither competitor can take the other down.  

The UFC is known for going out of its way to give its aging legends some sort of positive send-off, and it does look like the case here. Cerrone’s been active, but not effective. Lauzon has been inactive but might be more effective as a result.

Cerrone vs Lauzon tale of the tape

Donald Cerrone   Joe Lauzon
39 Age 38
6-foot-0 Height 5-foot-10
155 lbs Weight 155 lbs
73 inches Reach 71.5 inches
36-10 (10 KOs) Record 28-15 (9 KOs)

Cerrone vs Lauzon UFC prediction and best bet

Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.

If Lauzon showed signs of life before his long layoff, then he’d be a straight-up steal to win. That wasn’t the case, and this match between two almost-40 legends could likely be the end for both of them. Because Cerrone has been busier and won’t have the issue of ring rust to address come fight night, he should be rightfully favored. 

With Lauzon’s historically bad gas tank, his window to win is made that much smaller. If anything, Cerrone is going to pull together the last of his resources to end his long losing streak and end his career on a high note.

We like Cerrone to send Lauzon packing and take the win.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone moneyline (-165 at DraftKings)

Cerrone and Lauzon both have strong grappling backgrounds, and considering their wear and tear, they might be wrestling each other for a good part of the bout. Lauzon wouldn’t dare try to engage Cerrone outright, and Cerrone is strong enough to keep Lauzon from putting him on the mat.

Cerrone is stronger than Lauzon and is still capable enough to defend takedowns. With Lauzon being an inactive striker and relying heavily on his ground game, Cerrone won’t have trouble keeping the fight standing and landing significant shots to sap Lauzon’s resolve early.

The incentive for Cowboy to perform here can’t be ignored, and Lauzon might end up a sitting duck earlier than expected. We like a motivated Cerrone to try and press for a stoppage and succeed, taking home a +165 pickup.

PickDonald Cerrone to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+165 at DraftKings)

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