Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales predictions take center stage in tonight's Noche UFC co-main event at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona.
Although former flyweight champion Moreno enters as a slight underdog in the UFC odds, we expect the 32-year-old Mexican to stand tall in our free picks for this flyweight showdown on Saturday, Sept. 12.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales predictions for UFC Noche
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Who will win: Moreno | 47% |
| Moreno moneyline | 47% |
| Prop: Moreno by decision | 44% |
| Combo | 1.22x |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Who will win Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales: Moreno moneyline (47% Probability)
Wear and tear has made Brandon Moreno unlikely to compete among the elite of the flyweight division, but I’m not convinced he’s faded to the point where he’ll lose this one.
This is only Joseph Morales' third fight after a seven-year layoff, and it's a big jump in class against a former champion who's hungry for the win.
I’m backing the ex-champ as an underdog.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales top pick: Moreno moneyline (47% Probability)
Moreno won't rush into danger or give up any advantage against an opponent who's stepping up in class.
With Moreno known for having the cardio and durability to go five rounds, he should be able to take Morales the distance and come up with a win on the scorecards.
COVERS INTEL: Moreno has gone the distance in 12 of his last 16 fights, including seven five-round bouts.Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales prop: Moreno by decision (44% Probability)
50-75 words of analysis.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales combo
Morales is durable and dangerous enough to keep the fight competitive, while Moreno has increasingly relied on his striking, cardio, and ability to win rounds.
I expect the former champion to navigate the tougher moments and do enough over three rounds to earn a decision.
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Brandon Moreno | Joseph Morales |
| To win outright | 47% | 53% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 16% | 14% |
| To win by decision | 44% | 44% |
| To win by submission | 8% | 18% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 73% |
No 27% |
Odds as of 9-11.
The market seems to be buying into Moreno being finished as an elite fighter, which might be accurate, but Morales isn’t an elite opponent.
With Moreno looking to snap a losing streak while taking a step back in competition, he's an appealing underdog.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including UFC!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales tale of the tape
| Brandon Moreno | Joseph Morales | |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Age | 32 |
| 5-foot-7 | Height | 5-foot-6 |
| Flyweight | Weight Class | Flyweight |
| 70 inches | Reach | 68 inches |
| 23-10-2 | Record | 14-2 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 2 |
| 11 | Wins by submission | 8 |
The former champion has spent years fighting the elite of the flyweight division, including repeated championship bouts, while Morales has only recently returned to the UFC after a seven-year absence.
Morales owns an impressive submission game, but Moreno’s experience in high-level fights gives him the edge in a closely matched contest.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
