Our Tommy McMillen vs. Marwan Rahiki predictions feature two undefeated featherweight prospects colliding at Noche UFC this Saturday at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona.
McMillen enters as a 59% favorite at Kalshi, but Rahiki’s considerable finishing power makes this one of the more explosive fights on the card. Check out the latest UFC odds and free picks for this featherweight showdown on Saturday, Sept. 12.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki predictions for UFC Noche
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki: McMillen (59% Probability)
This will feature two high-octane strikers who will both aim to be the first one firing.
While Rahiki might be the more dangerous fighter from the start, McMillen fights at a bruising pace and has better conditioning.
The longer the fight goes, McMillen could see the fight swing dramatically in his favor after the first round, as he has the resiliency and chin to take big shots. McMillen is my pick.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki top pick: Fight ends before Round 3 (57% Probability)
Considering McMillen’s absurd pace and Rahiki being untested when fights go beyond the first round, this could look like two different fights between Round 1 and 2.
Rahiki can be dangerous in the opening rounds when these two will likely trade big shots, but he won’t keep up with McMillen if he can't hurt him. McMillen’s cardio and relentless striking will take over if he can’t.
Either way, this fight doesn’t look like it will go three rounds.
COVERS INTEL: McMillen lands an astonishing 13.54 significant strikes per minute, while none of Rahiki’s first three UFC bouts have reached the third round.Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki prop: McMillen by KO/TKO/DQ (30% Probability)
McMillen by KO/TKO/DQ is my favorite prop.
Rahiki has better one-punch power in the first round, but McMillen has the durability to weather such shots while maintaining his high pace.
With McMillen’s power staying consistent even late in fights, he doesn’t need to rely on a single opening to do damage. If Rahiki gasses out in the second round, McMillen will overwhelm him with volume and score a stoppage.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki combo
Rahiki should be dangerous early, but McMillen’s durability and relentless output can force him to expend considerable energy trying to keep pace. If McMillen survives the initial exchanges, his superior conditioning should take over, creating an opportunity to overwhelm a tiring Rahiki and force a stoppage before the third round.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki |
| To win outright | 59% | 41% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 29% | 32% |
| To win by decision | 28% | 15% |
| To win by submission | 12% | 5% |
Odds as of 9-10.
McMillen is a comfortable 59% favorite, as the market favors his conditioning, durability, and deeper skill set despite Rahiki’s explosiveness. Interestingly, Rahiki carries the higher KO/TKO probability at 32% compared to McMillen’s 29%, while the fight has only a 31% chance of reaching the scorecards
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Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki tale of the tape
| Tommy McMillen | Marwan Rahiki | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 24 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Featherweight | Weight Class | Featherweight |
| 74 inches | Reach | 72 inches |
| 11-0 | Record | 9-0 |
| 5 | Wins by KO | 8 |
| 5 | Wins by submission | 1 |
McMillen holds significant physical advantages with four inches in height and two inches in reach, but Rahiki is the more accomplished knockout artist with eight stoppages in nine victories. Both fighters remain undefeated, making this a significant test for two rising featherweights
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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