NHL Picks

Dougie Hamilton ranks 5th among NHL defensemen in shots on goal and has cleared 2.5 shots in 58% of his appearances. That jumps to 68% against Bottom-16 shot-suppression teams vs. defensemen and 72% against those in the Bottom-10, such as the Rangers.

Skinner is going to be busy tonight. The Hurricanes tilt the ice in their favor at home with a league-leading 60.4 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five while averaging a monster 32.3 shots per game. So, with Skinner settling in with a respectable .903 save percentage with 15.94 goals saved above expected across his past 15 starts, I expect him to turn away 27 or more shots tonight.

Thompson sports a tidy .920 save percentage and 2.16 GAA across his past six home starts, and he stands to face plenty of rubber tonight with the Senators in town. Ottawa has averaged 29.7 shots per game while ranking fourth in Corsi For percentage at five-on-five during the active 11-2-2 heater, after all.

The Senators are putting together a postseason push with an active 11-2-2 record while ranking fourth in Corsi For percentage and second in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. It’s a different story for the Capitals, with respective ranks of 25th and 20th during the same stretch.

Nathan MacKinnon lives to play the Dallas Stars. They have been a top-tier contender for years and yet MacKinnon has still found a way to score in eight of the past nine head-to-head meetings, including six straight.

Gridin is finding his NHL footing and has marked the scoresheet in four of his past six games while seeing increased offensive opportunities. The Russian cracked the CHL All-Rookie Team last year while averaging 1.41 points per game in the QMJHL, and he followed it up with 30 points across 37 AHL games this season before being promoted to the highest level. St. Louis has surrendered a healthy 3.39 goals per road game, too.

Carlsson has been scorching hot following the Olympics and has racked up three or more shots in seven of 11 games for 35 total on 64 attempts. He’s also averaged 3:48 of power-play time during the heater, in addition to pacing the Ducks in five-on-five Corsi For percentage. The Flyers allow just 25.7 shots per game, but that’s overpriced into this +125 number, and Carlsson is quickly proving to be matchup proof.

These two teams are a combined 5-15 to the O/U over their last 10 games. As star netminders Connor Hellebuyck and Jeremy Swayman take the crease, expect a low-scoring affair at TD Garden.