Best NFL Picks Today

With the Panthers' line and linebackers making running room scarce, and with Odunze hobbled by a leg injury, Williams may be looking to the tight ends to help spark the offense. Loveland could be on the verge of a breakout season after scoring six touchdowns in 11 starts as a rookie last year. That tied for the team lead, and he also led the Bears in receiving yards. Loveland impressed observers during training camp with his ability to get open and his reliable hands. He's also improved his ability to add yards after the catch.

Henry remains Baltimore’s preferred finisher near the goal line after scoring 16 rushing touchdowns last season, including 10 from inside the 20. With Jackson creating additional stress on Indianapolis’ front seven, Henry should see quality red-zone opportunities and is my favorite touchdown scorer in this matchup.

I'd recommend betting Pitts to score to +325 in Week 1 because he's a matchup nightmare and is coming off a career-high 88 receptions while interestingly playing a career-high 88% of offensive snaps last year. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-most receptions to the position in 2025, including 11 touchdowns, so this is a sneaky matchup because of Pitts’ versatility in the passing attack. He lined up in the slot on 34.7% of his offensive snaps and out wide on another 20.3%. Finally, I also value Falcons head coach Kevin Stefanski leaning on his tight ends for 18 receiving touchdowns across the past two years with the Cleveland Browns.

The Jaguars drafted Nate Boerkircher in the 2nd round this past summer, in part, to take some blocking responsibilities off of Brenton Strange. The idea was to get Strange more involved as a pass-catcher and to preserve his stamina by taking him off of some of the tougher blocking assignments he faced in 1-on-1 situations in 2025. 

Cleveland's top coverage linebacker, Carson Schwesinger, missed the majority of training camp with a shoulder injury. Buffalo's tight ends had their way with Cleveland's defense in a joint practice with Schwesinger off of the field. 

Schwesinger is expected to play in Week 1, but he might not be at full strength. Strange could be the primary beneficiary of any lapses in coverage in the middle of the field.

Baker Mayfield played through injury most of last season and he still ran for +16 yards in 10 games.

Robinson had a team-high 140 target while for the New York Giants over the last two seasons with 185 receptions and seven touchdowns. The Jets had the worst efficiency vs. slot receivers, per FTN's 2026 almanac. 

This prop is in play to +100 because St. Brown has scored double-digit touchdowns in three consecutive seasons, and he garnered a 38.9% target share in the red zone last year which translated into pacing all receivers in red-zone targets and receptions. St. Brown also finished third in PFF receiving grade last season, so I’m anticipating the rejigged New Orleans secondary to have their hands full covering St. Brown on Sunday. In particular, second-year defensive back Jonas Sanker is set to debut as the slot corner after playing safety as a rookie in 2025, and St. Brown lined up in the slot on 55.7% of his offensive snaps.

Stroud completed 20 and 21 passes in two cold weather postseason outings, which are keeping his Week 1 completions total low. Stroud has better protection, more options at receiver, and more importantly, he’s playing at home on the fast clean track of NRG Stadium in Week 1. Stroud’s career indoor/outdoor splits are dramatic, with the fourth-year QB seeing his completion rate slip to 59% outside versus 66% indoors. He averages more than 21 completions per game at home against 18.3 in open-air venues. Forecasts all sit north of 20 completions versus Buffalo with a high of 22. 

Every NFL fan knows Trey McBride is going to catch balls. Jacoby Brissett will lean heavily on his tight end against a Los Angeles Chargers team that ranked 10th in the NFL in defensive EPA per pass last year. I'm backing McBride to get 7+ receptions at 60% or less. 

Packers WR Jayden Reed didn't catch any touchdown passes last season. But Reed was second on the Packers in touchdown catches two years ago (six) and was tied for the team lead (eight) in 2023. 

Miami QB Malik Willis is one of the best running quarterbacks in the NFL, and RB De'Vone Achane is slight and injury-prone, so Willis could get goal-line carries

I recommend Barkley to score to -130 because he's run all over Washington with 428 rushing yards and five touchdowns across a mere three games since joining the Eagles. Additionally, he had his best game of 2025 with a season-high 5.19 yards after contact per attempt and PFF grade against the Commanders in Week 16. And, while the Washington defense is set to improve, it’s still a stop unit that ranked 28th in rush defense DVOA and allowed the fourth-highest rushing success rate in 2025. Finally, Philadelphia didn't bring in competition for Barkley's role over the offseason, and he garnered a 74% snap share with 33.8% of the touches and 48.3% of the carries inside the red zone last year.

The New York Giants were mediocre against the pass last year, allowing 25 touchdown throws and -0.02 EPA per pass. CeeDee Lamb took advantage of that in their first meeting last year, getting 112 yards on nine catches. I'm backing Lamb to get a touchdown at up to 45%.

I know both quarterbacks are coming back from injuries, but Patrick Mahomes' ligaments worry me, and worry me even more when his backside protection is going to be a second-string undrafted rookie facing off vs. Nik Bonitto and this Denver pass rush. The Chiefs have concerns on the other side of the ball as well. This is a secondary that lost 75% of its starters and a few more depth pieces. It's a brand new group and one that might take some time to execute the system. Denver should even be a little better in its deep passing game with the addition of Jaylen Waddle and the chemistry he is building with Bo Nix. Sorry, Chiefs fans.