Las Vegas @ New England Picks & Props

For the Raiders, this feels like a watershed moment. In one offseason, they’ve added an experienced Super Bowl-winning head coach and a man who can genuinely change the team's culture. They’ve now got an excellent signal caller in Geno Smith and somebody with the talent to lead this offense, as well as drafting Ashton Jeanty, the running back who tore up college football last year.

I’m all in on the Patriots hype this year, but Ashton Jeanty’s TD price might be the lowest we see all season. The Raiders rookie is currently -120 at DraftKings to score, with some books already down to -170. If he gets the lion’s share of touches and red-zone work — a Kyren Williams-type role — this number could regularly close in the -150 to -180 range going forward. Pete Carroll has a track record of riding bell-cow backs, and Jeanty checks every box: three-down skillset, elite game speed, and a strong build at 5’11”, 211 lbs. With Chip Kelly calling plays and Geno Smith at QB, this offense should be far more functional in 2025. Yes, it’s a tough road matchup to open, but very few backs should be priced shorter than Jeanty in Week 1. Take the -120 while it’s still hanging.

The Raiders and Patriots respectively ranked 27th and 30th in converting red-zone trips into touchdowns and 29th and 30th in points per game last year, so even with some promosing upgrades on and off the field for both clubs, I'm not anticipating either offense hitting the groud running in Week 1.

I value landing the Pats below the key number of 3 because head coach Mike Vrabel consistently had his teams outperform the sum of their parts during his tenure with the Tennessee Titans, and I'm expecting the New England defense to show up in the season opener. 

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.

The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders offensive approach to lean 2.1% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now calling the plays.. Right now, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (59.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.. Last year, the strong Patriots defense has conceded the 6th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing offenses: a paltry 4.9 YAC.

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.. Last year, the stout Raiders defense has conceded a meager 210.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.

The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders offensive approach to lean 2.1% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now calling the plays.. Right now, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (59.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.

The predictive model expects the Raiders offense to be the quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.33 seconds per snap.. With an impressive 94.8% Route Participation Rate (94th percentile) last year, Jakobi Meyers places among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. This week, Jakobi Meyers is expected by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.2 targets.. With a terrific 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (91st percentile) last year, Jakobi Meyers has been as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in the NFL.. The New England Patriots pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.69 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 10th-most in the NFL.

The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders offensive approach to lean 2.1% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now calling the plays.. Right now, the 10th-least pass-focused team in the league (59.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.. The Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch last year: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.. Last year, the stout Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a mere 28.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-fewest in the league.

The predictive model expects the Raiders offense to be the quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.33 seconds per snap.. When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been atrocious last year, projecting as the 5th-worst in football.

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New England Patriots ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league last year.. With a weak 7.8 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) last year, Stefon Diggs stands among the weakest WRs in the league in the NFL.. Last year, the imposing Las Vegas Raiders defense has allowed a puny 125.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 6th-best in football.. Last year, the formidable Raiders defense has allowed the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a puny 7.7 yards.

The projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders offensive approach to lean 2.1% more towards running than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now calling the plays.. Our trusted projections expect the Raiders to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 40.6% run rate.. The predictive model expects the Raiders offense to be the quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.33 seconds per snap.. Geno Smith's rushing effectiveness (6.85 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league last year (76th percentile when it comes to QBs).. Last year, the feeble New England Patriots run defense has been gouged for a staggering 135.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 7th-worst in football.