Cincinnati @ Cleveland Picks & Props

I’ll gladly jump on the Over for Tee Higgins’ receiving yards against a secondary he’s dominated in prior matchups. He had four catches for 82 yards and a touchdown against the Browns in Week 7 last season. Though Higgins fell just short of this 63.5 line in the second meeting last year, he was targeted 11 times.

If there’s a week to back the Browns' passing game, it’s Week 1 against a Bengals secondary that made no meaningful upgrades through free agency or the draft. Joe Flacco is still capable of piling up volume, and as five-point home underdogs, a negative game script is likely. The backfield is a stay-away. Looking at the touchdown market, Jerry Jeudy (+190), Cedric Tillman (+275), and David Njoku (+230) are all in play, but Jeudy stands out as the clear value. In his final 10 games last season—with Deshaun Watson "pulled" and Amari Cooper gone—Jeudy averaged 96.3 yards and 0.3 touchdowns per game. He’s comfortably a tier above Tillman in terms of talent and opportunity. The market is already moving, with Jeudy as short as +150 at some books. If you can find +180 or better, it's worth a play. This might be the only week you’ll want exposure to a Browns pass-catcher.

The Browns averaged a league-low 15.2 points per game last season, and this 47.5 total is the highest in a Browns game since Week 4 of the 2022 season. Yes, the Bengals have the offensive firepower to do the heavy lifting, but the Browns also need to chip in, and Cleveland has only hit its team total Over in five of the last 20 games.

The Browns went 4-13 against the spread last year, and 40-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco is starting the opener, while the Bengals won five straight – 4-1 ATS – to close out the 2025 season. I’m anticipating Joe Burrow putting too many points on the board for the Browns to hang around Sunday, and Cincy has won and covered three consecutive games and four of the past five against Cleveland.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to pass on 64.2% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In this week's contest, Joe Burrow is projected by the projection model to have the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 39.0. . With a stellar record of 297.0 adjusted passing yards per game (100th percentile), Joe Burrow rates among the leading passers in the NFL last year.. With an excellent 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) last year, Joe Burrow stands as one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to pass on 64.2% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.. The model projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. In this game, Mike Gesicki is projected by the model to rank in the 75th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.1 targets.. In regards to air yards, Mike Gesicki ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs last year, accruing a whopping 38.0 per game.. Mike Gesicki comes in as one of the best TEs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 41.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.

David Njoku grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging just 5.88 adjusted yards-per-target last year while checking in at the 10th percentile.. David Njoku has been one of the worst tight ends in football at generating extra yardage, averaging just 3.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 25th percentile.

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The model projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 130.1 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The Browns defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games last year, conceding 4.75 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cleveland Browns are anticipated by the model to call 65.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-most on the slate this week.. The Cleveland Browns have run the most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a massive 62.0 plays per game.. In this contest, Jerome Ford is predicted by the predictive model to rank in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 11.4 carries.. While Jerome Ford has received 31.0% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Cleveland's ground game in this contest at 45.4%.. With an excellent rate of 4.92 adjusted yards per carry (84th percentile), Jerome Ford has been as one of the top RBs in football last year.