Miami @ Indianapolis Picks & Props

The Patriots may not have the sexy names, but they are getting points here when they likely shouldn’t, and are worth an early bet to cover the spread.

The Colts' defense is going to struggle against the run this season, and the Miami Dolphins will likely go run-heavy to take advantage here in Week 1. De’Von Achane and Ollie Gordon will see a lot of touches, and the rest will mostly be split between Hill and Waddle. 

This might be my favorite pick for highest-scoring game of the week at 10/1, and I’m targeting the Miami backfield for touchdown value — indoors, against a soft Colts run defense. Rookie Ollie Gordon’s stock has dipped slightly with DeVon Achane expected to play, but Achane started the week limited with a calf issue. No. 3 back Jaylen Wright is likely out, which puts Gordon — a 6’1", 225-pound bruiser — in line for potential goal-line work in a game where Miami could easily score 28 or more. As always, price is everything in TD betting. Gordon is currently +255 to score, making this one of my favorite touchdown plays in Week 1. Only three teams allowed more rushing TDs per game at home last season than the Colts. I’d buy this down to +180.

The great thing about the Week 1 Dolphins is that this will be the healthiest they’ll be all season. That means Tua has all his marbles as well as one of the best receiving duos in the land. Mix in a little De'Von Achane and that Miami attack packs a punch. What gets me really excited about the Fins, however, is this defense. Miami has one of the best front sevens with a ton of depth and key contributors returning from an injury-plagued 2024. The Colts opted to go with Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson as the starter. Jones played his way out of New York by not being able to throw past the sticks and rating among the worst passers under pressure. 

The Colts' run defense looks like it could be very bad based on what we saw in the preseason. The starters were in the preseason opener against the Baltimore Ravens' second string, and yet they allowed Keaton Mitchell to average 7.6 yards per carry. De’Von Achane and Ollie Gordon will likely give the Colts fits on Sunday, and Achane is capable of scoring in a flash with any opening. 

The Miami Dolphins have major issues in the secondary and traded away Jalen Ramsey in the offseason. They also have several injuries to guys that were expected to start, and will be playing several players with little to no experience. 

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins last year (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.5 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather in this week's game.. With a lackluster 63.4% Adjusted Completion% (24th percentile) last year, Daniel Jones stands among the least accurate QBs in the NFL.. Daniel Jones is positioned as one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL last year, averaging a measly 6.13 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the lowly 6th percentile.. Last year, the fierce Miami Dolphins defense has yielded the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a paltry 7.5 yards.

The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins last year (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 36.5 passes this week, on balance: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.. With an exceptional total of 268.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa places as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL last year.. Last year, the poor Colts defense has been torched for a staggering 76.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in football.

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 7th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather in this week's game.

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per play.. Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 61.8% of his offense's dropbacks last year, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.. Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to total 2.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the 4th-best in the league last year.. As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Miami's collection of LBs has been awful last year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per play.. The model projects Josh Downs to notch 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.. Josh Downs has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 25.8% last year, which puts him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all air attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the 4th-best in the league last year.. With a terrific 55.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (76th percentile) last year, Josh Downs places among the leading wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run on 45.3% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offense to be the 5th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.41 seconds per play.. The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier weather in this week's game.. In this game, Daniel Jones is expected by our trusted projection set to total the 5th-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 7.3. . Accounting for 22.9% of his team's rushing play calls last year (91st percentile among quarterbacks), Daniel Jones's mobility makes him a major weapon on the ground.

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Miami Dolphins last year (a colossal 59.7 per game on average).. In this week's game, Devon Achane is expected by the projections to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.0 carries.. While Devon Achane has been responsible for 46.4% of his offense's carries in games he has played last year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Miami's ground game in this contest at 56.7%.. Devon Achane has averaged 49.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (75th percentile).

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.. The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the league last year when it comes to defending the run.

The model projects the Dolphins to be the 2nd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.5% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.6 offensive plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.. In this week's game, Tua Tagovailoa is projected by the projection model to accrue the 5th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 1.7. . Taking on a mere 4.4% of his offense's rushing play calls last year (20th percentile when it comes to QBs), Tua Tagovailoa's immobility makes him no threat with his legs.. The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in the league last year when it comes to defending the run.