I expect Aaron Rodgers to integrate faster than Fields, meaning there’s far more upside for the Pittsburgh offense in Week 1. I’m taking the Steelers to cover.
I’m buying into the Braelon Allen buzz in New York — and so are touchdown bettors. His price has moved from +280 to +250 at DraftKings over the past week. Allen profiles as the bigger, more physical back, and with a new quarterback and HC/OC in town, Aaron Glenn has no loyalty to Breece Hall. Hall is the better pass-catcher, but Allen could take over goal-line duties. Glenn has also hinted at a 1A/1B backfield split, which makes Allen at a price 80 points longer than Hall a value play. It’s the lowest total on the Week 1 slate, so scoring might be limited, but Allen is the better short-yardage runner behind what should be an improved offensive line. If you can get Allen at +200 or better, it’s worth the play.
Garrett Wilson was never able to build much of a connection with Aaron Rodgers, but he should feel much more comfortable catching passes from former Ohio State teammate Justin Fields. With Davante Adams also out of the picture, Wilson is the clear-cut WR1 and is set for a massive uptick in targets starting Sunday.
The Steelers defense is always a handful, and this pass rush will have Fields on the move most dropbacks. The Jets are already employing a basic quick-hitting attack under new OC Tanner Engstrand which won’t get anything extra from a disciplined Pittsburgh defense that doesn’t miss tackles. Rodgers is running this new offense for the first time at full speed and beyond DK Metcalf, the skill positions offer fewer threats. Arthur Smith’s playbook failed to score more than 20 points in nine games last season and this total doesn’t have high hopes for Week 1. Week 1 totals of 38.5 points or shorter have stayed Under at a 59% clip since 2000, including a 0-4 O/U count since 2019.
I think there is value in the Jets this season, but this may not be the game. Pittsburgh proved it could be competitive solely on the back of its defense in 2024 and now takes on a former QB who struggled under pressure, facing a foe who has endless amounts of tape on his strengths and weaknesses. Rodgers is well past his expiration date but is the better quarterback in this matchup. He’ll likely need some help from the defense to get the job done, given New York’s stop unit and its improvements. A last-second field goal seems about right in an ugly low-scoring game.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. When talking about pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New York Jets grades out as the 8th-best in football last year.. Last year, the weak Steelers defense has allowed the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a massive 8.02 yards.. The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league last year in defending pass-catchers.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. With an impressive 97.6% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in football.. Our trusted projections expect Garrett Wilson to garner 9.4 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. When talking about air yards, Garrett Wilson ranks in the towering 91st percentile among wideouts last year, accumulating a colossal 89.0 per game.. The Steelers pass defense has displayed bad efficiency vs. wide receivers last year, giving up 8.72 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the league.
The Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.. D.K. Metcalf has run a route on 92.2% of his team's passing plays last year, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.. The leading projections forecast D.K. Metcalf to notch 8.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.. When talking about air yards, D.K. Metcalf ranks in the lofty 96th percentile among wide receivers last year, totaling a staggering 99.0 per game.. With a fantastic 64.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (85th percentile) last year, D.K. Metcalf has been as one of the leading WRs in the NFL in the NFL.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.. With a high 14.0% Target Rate (97th percentile) last year, Breece Hall has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage in football.. In regards to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the towering 95th percentile among RBs last year, averaging a monstrous 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it sounds since most RBs average negative air yards).. Last year, the shaky Steelers defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a staggering 7.00 yards.
This game's spread implies a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 44.0% of their plays: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football last year, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Jets to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Jets have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. Justin Fields's ground efficiency (4.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league last year (20th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks).. Last year, the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has conceded a puny 98.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in the NFL.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Jets to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Jets have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. The projections expect Breece Hall to be a much smaller piece of his team's ground game in this week's game (35.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (63.6% in games he has played).. Last year, the formidable Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has conceded a puny 98.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best in the NFL.
The Jets are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.. The model projects the Jets to call the 8th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Jets have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL last year, averaging a lowly 55.7 plays per game.. The projections expect Breece Hall to be a much smaller piece of his team's ground game in this week's game (35.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (63.6% in games he has played).
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