Best NFL Picks Today

With a backup under center, Todd Bowles wants to protect Daniels from any bad spots. That means using the run to set up third-and-manageable situations for his inexperienced passer. The Bucs ran the ball on almost 51% of their snaps last Sunday, a notable deviation from their run play percentage of 40.6% on the season. Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards in Week 4 despite being limited in practice due to a glute injury. His rushing forecasts all sit well above 50 yards on Thursday, with models ranging from 55 to 75 yards on the ground. My projection says 67 yards rushing from Irving.

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt and the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down with go-to receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) sidelined Sunday, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) exiting in the first quarter. It’s bad news for an offense ranking 28th in EPA per play. Of course, the Jaguars are executing on both sides of the ball, and I particularly value them allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, sixth-lowest rushing success rate and fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. It’s going to be another long day for the Philly offense in London.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.  The defense isn’t living up to its top billing in the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totals 475 yards of offense.

Lamar Jackson's status is up in the air but the latest reports don't sound positive for the Ravens QB. This Sunday Night Football contest will turn into a game of “keep-away” as both offenses are anchored in the run, sitting No. 1 and No. 3 in rushing play percentage. The Falcons go deep into the play clock before snapping the ball – at least with Penix Jr. under center. Atlanta has posted an average of 32:53 in time of possession the past two games. Offensively, Baltimore is methodical even with Jackson at the wheel. Should he sit out Week 5, this attack will run considerably slower with the backup QB and lean even more into RB Derrick Henry. Short gains with the clock ticking and two sound defenses clear a path to the Under on Sunday night.