Best NFL Picks Today

The Falcons rank 24th in DVOA defending WR2s, allowing an average of 54.6 yards per game to the position. This secondary is also running a high rate of man coverage (10th most) and Higgins currently rates as the No. 1 WR versus man at PFF. Projections for Higgins range from 74 to 88 yards on Sunday morning, with most models north of 80 yards. My number comes out to 81.5 receiving yards in Madrid.

His low Week 8 result is slimming his receiving yards prop for Sunday’s matchup despite facing a much soft pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed rival TEs to go for 37, 48, and 72 yards the last three contests and average more than 52 yards against from the position on the season. Warren’s projections are very bullish, with all consulted models coming in well above 40 yards with most north of 50. My number sits at 52 receiving yards for the Colts tight end.

The Rams could be without both starting cornerbacks and their starting safety in a game where Washington will likely have to pass more than it wants to. Stefon Diggs might not play 85% of the snaps, but he's on the field for passing downs and leads the team with a 23% target share, which jumps to 28% on routes run. As the No. 1 receiver, getting his TD at longer than 3x is value, as I have his fair price around 2.8x. Diggs has twice as many red-zone targets as the next-best WR and has caught a TD in each of the five games Jayden Daniels has started, with five total across four games.

I recommend this Over up to 56%. Goff has completed 22 or more passes in five of seven games, and his 2.74 time to throw is the longest mark through six seasons with Detroit. The Dolphins also rank 23rd in PFF coverage grade and generate pressure at the 12th-lowest rate in the league while allowing the highest dropback success rate.

If you're on board with the Broncos getting a road cover, then you're on board with a Bryce Young pick. He has at least one in every Panthers loss this year and none in the wins. He's been intercepted in 11 of his last 13 losses and his 33 interceptions in the 35 starts his lost in his career. 

This Nabers touchdown prop is in play up to 38%. He was the top target for McCarthy in Week 7, and Nabers finished with seven receptions on nine targets for 111 yards. The go-to receiver’s 33.3% red-zone target share is also the fourth-highest mark at the position, and the Eagles have already allowed 10 touchdown receptions to wide receivers this season. 

The Raiders are up to six straight Overs, averaging a ridiculous 61.8 combined points. Their offense is putting up 27.6 per game, while their defense is in contention for the worst in the league. Now they visit a 49ers offense that leads the NFL in yards per play and is coming off a loss and a bye. Every one of Vegas' last six games cleared 51.5. Give me another Over.

Christian Watson is dealing with a rib injury and might not be 100% heading into Sunday, while Matthew Golden has four TDs over his last six games and has seen 38 targets over his last three games, with double-digit looks in each. I got this at 2.94x, compared to prices of 2.4x and 2.3x over the last two weeks. The New England pass defense isn't particularly stout and is one of seven defenses allowing more than one receiving TD per game to opposing wide receivers. There are also four New England defensive starters carrying questionable tags midweek. I like this one down to 2.5x.

Seattle's 4-4 record is misleading. The Seahawks rank third in net yards per play, while Arizona ranks dead last, and they've covered nine of their last 10 meetings with the Cardinals, with seven double-digit victories. Drew Lock replacing Sam Darnold doesn't scare me off, especially after his three-TD performance against Arizona in Week 2. This is a get-right spot Seattle desperately needs.

The Bears have covered in an amazing eight straight primetime games by an average of 8.3 points, going 5-0 ATS at home during that streak. They’ve won their three night games this season by 20, six, and 17 points. Tampa Bay has receoved from an 0-4 start, but it's been against light competition. This is a major step up for the Bucs in a tough environment on the road.

Minnesota's defense is legit, but its offense is a mess. The Vikings rank 24th or worse in scoring, yards per play, and third-down conversion rate, and we're supposed to believe Carson Wentz fixes that? They were outgained by 118 yards against Detroit and have scored 16 or fewer in three of four games. That's not enough against the NFL's top-scoring Bills.