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Dallas has allowed the highest dropback success rate while ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA through four weeks, so Daniels is set up for success in his second career start. The Bucs are also massive underdogs, so there will be a positive passing game script for Daniels and the offense. I also particularly value Tampa Bay offensive coordinator and playcaller Zac Robinson being ultra conservative with Daniels, and the rookie posting a 70.4 completion percentage and 3.9 aDoT in Week 4. Look for the short completions to continue piling up against Dallas on Thursday Night Football.

Bhayshul Tuten had two TDs called back last week because of holding penalties but still finished with 19 touches and leads the team in red-zone carries, with nine of the Jaguars’ 15 running back RZ carries this season. I’m going square here and making Tuten my square TD of the week in London. Chris Rodriguez is getting some work, but his 26% snap share isn’t enough to make me bite at his 4.3x price as the backup. I have Tuten at 56% to score as a big favorite and a back who could see 20-plus touches. The Eagles are one of 11 defenses allowing 100-plus rushing yards to opposing running backs. I want nothing to do with the Eagles’ offense with all the injuries, trades, and poor form, and the Jaguars have moved from 2.5-point underdogs to 7-point favorites.

 

I got Quinshon Judkins at 39%, but have his fair TD price at 46%. He was as short as 2.1x just two games ago and is coming off a game where he handled 83% of all running back opportunities, including a massive seven-target game. Considering how the Jets’ offense performed last week without Breece Hall, Cleveland could easily be playing with the lead and leaning on Judkins for a 4-1 SU push. Near the goal line, it has been all Judkins, as he has all nine of Cleveland’s running back red-zone carries this season, scoring on one and adding another three targets. This offense has been average over the last three weeks, and that’s a compliment. Judkins’ price will fall this week.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.. While Chase Brown has been responsible for 6.2% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more important option in Cincinnati's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 14.9%.. Chase Brown's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 81.1% to 95.2%.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

Woody Marks is the better running back in an offense that is back in business with the return of Nico Collins. He played 42% of the snaps last week and had six carries and a score — his second in as many games. Since Week 2, he has more red-zone carries than David Montgomery, who has three RZ carries for a whopping zero yards. Marks also has two targets to Montgomery’s zero inside the 20. The Titans are a top-10 matchup for rushing TDs and have a 66% opponent red-zone scoring rate, while the Texans could be running heavily as 7.5-point road favorites. Marks is a buy for me to 40%.

A running game script is indicated by the Commanders being a 3.5-point favorite this week.. The projections expect the Commanders as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have only 122.1 total plays called: the 2nd-fewest among all games this week.

At the present time, the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football (41.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In tallying a whopping 4.5 carries per game this year, Justin Herbert stands among the top QBs in the NFL (82nd percentile) when it comes to running volume.. Justin Herbert isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, comprising 15.9% of his team's rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 78th percentile among QBs.. This year, the weak Broncos run defense has been gouged for a massive 141.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 4th-most in the NFL.

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -5.5-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 64.5% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 134.5 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.. The Detroit Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (45.0 per game) this year.. Michael Wilson's 73.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a meaningful boost in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 50.0 figure.

The projections expect Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 15.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.. Christian McCaffrey has picked up 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (84th percentile).. Christian McCaffrey's rushing effectiveness (4.82 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (84th percentile among running backs).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Seattle's collection of DTs has been great this year, profiling as the 8th-best in football.

While there’s no denying Jackson’s worth, the Ravens are used to “breaking the glass” in case of emergency. Baltimore is 6-11 SU without Jackson at QB but 8-9 ATS in those outings. The Falcons not only take the field on a short week, but their public perception is pumping with positivity after two prime time wins. I feel that’s taxing this team too much on SNF. The Ravens’ defense is the highest rated stop unit Atlanta has faced this season and Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter is focusing on improving the run stop. This feels like a rock fight with both teams selling out to stop the run. I’ll buy back the big move on the Ravens, hanging on to that half-point hook for dear life.

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 3 points.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Rams grades out as the 9th-worst in football this year.. The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 7th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.