Packers @ Bears Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.2%).

The Green Bay Packers may pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 127.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week. Josh Jacobs's 14.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for RBs. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has given up a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the largest rate in the league. The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the most TDs through the air in the league to RBs: 0.29 per game this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).

The Green Bay Packers may pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 127.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week. While Christian Watson has garnered 13.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Green Bay's offense near the goal line in this week's game at 18.7%. Christian Watson has accrued far more air yards this season (99.0 per game) than he did last season (63.0 per game). Christian Watson's 55.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 38.5.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.2%).

The Green Bay Packers may pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 127.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week. While Luke Musgrave has received 1.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's offense near the end zone this week at 8.8%. Luke Musgrave's 15.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 9.6. This year, the deficient Bears pass defense has allowed a massive 81.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the largest rate in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).

The Green Bay Packers may pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see just 127.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week. Jordan Love has not rushed for any touchdowns this year. This year, the shaky Chicago Bears defense has given up a massive 73.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the largest rate in the league. The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the most passing touchdowns in the league: 1.82 per game this year.