Browns @ Bengals Picks & Props

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.1% red zone pass rate. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. Chase Brown has accrued a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among running backs. (This may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.1% red zone pass rate. The Cincinnati Bengals offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 28.22 seconds per play. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 37.7 passes in this contest, on balance: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.

This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -3-point underdogs. The model projects the Browns offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.24 seconds per play. The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. While Jerry Jeudy has accounted for 15.3% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Cleveland's pass game near the goal line this week at 20.4%. Jerry Jeudy rates in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a monstrous 55.6 mark this year.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 62.1% red zone pass rate. The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. Ja'Marr Chase has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.9% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among WRs.