Dolphins @ Jets Picks & Props

In this contest, Darren Waller is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 76th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets. Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends. Darren Waller ranks as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 79th percentile. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets. The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%). The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

The Dolphins have been the 7th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 57.8% pass rate. Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the model to call only 63.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Dolphins this year (just 52.0 per game on average). The Miami O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing game metrics across the board. De'Von Achane's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 92.3% to 74.5%.

The model projects the Jets to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to total 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Jaylen Waddle's 63.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 43.8. Jaylen Waddle checks in as one of the best WRs in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 4.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New York Jets. This week, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile among running backs with 3.7 targets. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 76.6% to 91.0%. This year, the porous Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a massive 90.6% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Malik Washington has gone over 2.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

John Metchie III has gone over 3.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Greg Dulcich has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Jeremy Ruckert has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.