Dolphins @ Jets Picks & Props

Even during its current winnings streak, Miami’s offense hasn’t been special, and the Jets aren’t built to run up the score, either.

After posting an 8/102/1 line last week in just his third game with the offense, the former Colts receiver looks like he’s finally settling into a suddenly competent Jets attack. Across his three games as a Jet, he’s racked up 457 air yards and 27 targets — production that should put his TD price below +200, yet the market still hasn’t adjusted. John Metchie saw eight targets last week, but much of that came late. Mitchell is the one getting the deeper routes and the higher-value opportunities. The Jets may not score more than 20 points, but with Miami having to account for Breece Hall, Mitchell should see plenty of shots on Sunday.

When the Dolphins take the field at a chilly MetLife Stadium on Sunday, it will be the team’s first true road game since October 26. The Jets have quietly been one of the best bets in the NFL. New York is 3-2 SU in its last five games while going a perfect 5-0 ATS in that span. Even in the two losses, New York was behind by only one score in the fourth quarter versus the Ravens and Patriots. Gang Green’s defense has taken some time to adjust to injuries, trades, and Aaron Glenn’s new schemes this season, but they’ve consistently been stiff against the run. That’s especially true since the Week 10 bye, ranked 12th in opponent success rate per run. Bottling up Miami RB De’Von Achane is priority No. 1 this Sunday. 

A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog in this game.. This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league.. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has allowed the 7th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 7.91 yards.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

This year, the porous Jets defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.90 yards.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

In this contest, Darren Waller is anticipated by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.. When talking about air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a remarkable 41.0 per game.. Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends.. Darren Waller checks in as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 43.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.. Darren Waller ranks as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 11.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 95th percentile.

A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog in this game.. The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

De'Von Achane has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (74.2% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (61.2%).. In this week's contest, De'Von Achane is expected by the projection model to place in the 99th percentile among RBs with 6.8 targets.. De'Von Achane has accumulated a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not sound too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. The Jets pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency versus running backs this year, yielding 6.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in football.. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog in this game.. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a massive 81.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in the NFL.. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.09 yards.. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to total 8.3 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.. After accruing 56.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has seen a big uptick this year, now sitting at 86.0 per game.. Jaylen Waddle's 63.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 43.8.. Jaylen Waddle is positioned as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a stellar 57.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.. The Jets pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wideouts this year, giving up 8.46 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-most in the league.

A passing game script is suggested by the Jets being a -3-point underdog in this game.. This week, Breece Hall is projected by the projections to position himself in the 87th percentile among running backs with 3.7 targets.. Breece Hall has accrued a staggering 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).. Breece Hall's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 76.6% to 91.0%.. Breece Hall's 8.4 adjusted yards per target this year represents a substantial progression in his receiving prowess over last year's 6.2 rate.

With a 3-point advantage, the Dolphins are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.. The Dolphins rank as the 8th-most run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.2% run rate.. Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (134 per game) vs. the Jets defense this year.. The New York Jets defensive ends rank as the 2nd-worst DE corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.. In this game, Tyrod Taylor is predicted by the model to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 6.3. . Tyrod Taylor has been a much bigger part of his offense's run game this year (20.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (0.0%).. With an outstanding rate of 26.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Tyrod Taylor stands as one of the top running quarterbacks in the league this year.. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins run defense has yielded a massive 140.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.