Seahawks @ Falcons Picks & Props

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned 26.8% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Seattle's offense near the end zone in this contest at 33.4%. After totaling 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gotten better this year, currently pacing 112.0 per game. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 89.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 57.6.

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 7th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. While Kenneth Walker III has received 2.4% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more important option in Seattle's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 9.1%. With a fantastic 90.8% Adjusted Catch% (85th percentile) this year, Kenneth Walker III stands among the most sure-handed receivers in football among RBs. This year, the poor Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded a whopping 0.33 receiving TDs per game to opposing RBs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. In regards to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing an astounding 4.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).