The Ravens struggled to defend the run at the start of the year but have shored up that area over the last few weeks. They held the Rams to 74 yards on 23 rush attempts before going on their bye in Week 7. Last week they limited the Bears to 92 yards on 23 carries with 22 of those yards coming on a scramble by Caleb Williams against prevent defense. More than 68% of Achane's rush attempts come on inside zone and outside zone run plays and Baltimore allows just 3.5 yards per carry on those plays. And with the Ravens installed as 7.5-point favorites, the Phins could be forced to abandon the run if they fall behind early.
Jackson has rushed for 35 or more yards in three of four games this season and 15 of 19 in 2024, including the playoffs. And, if the two-time MVP winner is healthy enough to start, he’s going to be involved in the ground game, and opponents have been running all over the Dolphins. Additionally, Jackson hasn’t had a rushing-yards total this low the past two years. We’re obviously landing this number because he’s missed the past three games with a hamstring injury, and while there’s always the risk of aggravation or a change in game plan, I’m not anticipating it.
Jackson says that he is 100% heading into Thursday Night but I'm skeptical. You don't go from missing an essentially must-win game on Sunday to miraculously being fully healed in four days. While I don't think he'll be significantly hindered by his hamstring, I do think the lingering affects will make him less able (and willing) to run the ball. And the Miami Dolphins feeble pass rush certainly isn't going to force him out of the pocket. Jackson has finished with fewer than 6.5 rush attempts in three of four games this year and I think we'll see him stay in the pocket on TNF.
The Dolphins are dead-last in the league in defensive dropback EPA and success rate. Zay Flowers is far and away the best receiver on the Ravens and he'll look to take advantage of that piss-poor Miami secondary. Flowers saw a whopping 19 targets over the last two weeks but wasn't able to do much with Cooper Rush and Tyler Huntley throwing him the ball. The Pro Bowl wideout racked up more than 70 receiving yards in four of his first five games this year and he should thrive with Lamar Jackson back under center.
Jackson’s usage as a rushing threat on Thursday could be tempered by his recent hamstring injury but while I may stay away from his rushing yards total, I do like the Over 14.5 yards for his longest run attempt. Miami is an aggressive defense that blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL, which means added pressure pushing Jackson out of the pocket but also less linebackers at the second level when Lamar takes off. The Dolphins also run more man-to-man schemes, which has defenders locked in on coverage and turning their backs to the QB. It takes a touch longer for defensive backs to recognize the run and make the tackle. Jackson has gone for longs of 15-plus in 17 of his last 23 games going back to last season and we’ve seen the Fins give up big rushing gains to fellow dual-threat QBs like Josh Allen and Justin Fields this season.
Going back to September 30th of last season, the Over has hit in nine straight Dolphins' home games. Miami's offense has done plenty of heavy lifting in these games, as they’ve scored 27 or more points in eight straight. With Lamar Jackson expected back, it should be pointed out that the four games he’s played in this season all resulted in at least 57 combined points or more with the four games having an average combined score of 66 points.
The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson.. The predictive model expects Lamar Jackson to be a much smaller piece of his team's ground game near the end zone this week (16.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).. Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 67.6% to 70.7%.. Lamar Jackson has been among the top TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 2.00 per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).
The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 51.8 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 31.7 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.
The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.. This year, the anemic Ravens defense has given up a massive 272.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 4th-most in football.. This year, the deficient Ravens defense has been torched for a massive 76.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.
The model projects the Dolphins to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Dolphins this year (only 51.8 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 31.7 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all quarterbacks.. As it relates to pass protection (and the impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Dolphins ranks as the worst in football this year.
The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.. Tanner Conner's 13.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 6.3.. The Ravens pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (91.6%) vs. tight ends this year (91.6%).
The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football.. In this week's contest, De'Von Achane is forecasted by the projections to finish in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 7.2 targets.. De'Von Achane has been a more important option in his offense's pass attack this year (21.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.3%).
The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson.. The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to garner 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.. Zay Flowers has accumulated a staggering 71.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among wide receivers.. Zay Flowers's 70.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.1.. Zay Flowers has been one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 57.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson.. Derrick Henry has posted a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. With an impressive 8.79 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (91st percentile) since the start of last season, Derrick Henry ranks among the best RBs in the pass game in the league in the open field.. This year, the shaky Miami Dolphins defense has been gouged for a staggering 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 6th-most in the league.. The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (91%) vs. RBs this year (91.0%).
The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson.. Mark Andrews has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 17.3% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile among TEs.. The Dolphins defense has given up the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (59.0) vs. tight ends this year.. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (84.8%) to tight ends this year (84.8%).
The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson.. The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 120.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 50.1 plays per game.. Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (118.0).. Derrick Henry's 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this season marks a meaningful reduction in his rushing ability over last season's 6.2 mark.
Baltimore Trends
Miami Trends