Baltimore @ Miami Picks & Props

The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football. Tanner Conner's 13.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 6.3.

The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson. Mark Andrews has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.5% this year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among TEs. Mark Andrews's 36.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in the NFL: 88th percentile for tight ends. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson. The predictive model expects Lamar Jackson to be a much smaller piece of his team's ground game near the end zone this week (16.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played). Lamar Jackson's throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 67.6% to 70.7%. Lamar Jackson has been among the top TD throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 2.00 per game while grading out in the 97th percentile. Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%).

The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson. The projections expect Zay Flowers to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the end zone in this week's contest (23.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (17.6% in games he has played). Zay Flowers has accumulated a staggering 71.0 air yards per game this year: 78th percentile among wide receivers. Zay Flowers's 70.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.1. Zay Flowers's 76.1% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys an impressive improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 65.7% rate.

The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football. With a top-tier 25.0% Red Zone Target Share (94th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands as one of the wideouts with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.

The Baltimore Ravens may take to the air less this week (and call more rushes) since they be rolling out backup QB Lamar Jackson. The model projects Derrick Henry to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the goal line in this week's game (5.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played). Derrick Henry has posted a massive 2.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest level in the league against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (77.5% Adjusted Completion%). When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's LB corps has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 8th-best in the NFL.

The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football. De'Von Achane has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.2% this year, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.

The Dolphins are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 5th-most in football. With an impressive ratio of 1.67 per game (79th percentile), Tua Tagovailoa stands as one of the best TD passers in the NFL this year.