Commanders @ Giants &nbsp; Picks &amp; Props

u206.5 -115

u207.5 -114

While Dart has shown promise at times, he also doesn’t have a lot of help. In 10 games played, he’s averaging just 155.6 passing yards per contest. He’s cashed the Under in three of his last four appearances as well.

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Touchdowns

Theo Johnson o0.5 Touchdowns (+250)

Best Odds

o0.5 +240

Pick made: yesterday

o0.5 +215

o0.5 +210

o0.5 +240

o0.5 +235

The Commanders are a strong matchup for any pass catcher, as their defense is one of six in the league allowing two or more passing touchdowns per game. The New York passing game should remain steady with Jaxson Dart, who’s coming into Week 15 with some extra rest. Theo Johnson has been one of Dart’s most reliable options. The rookie tied for the team lead with eight targets last week, accounting for 33 percent of Dart’s attempts. He also showed some frustration in the loss, which could translate into a motivated performance on Sunday. This is playable to +210.

Passing Yards

Jaxson Dart u209.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 185.15 (Under)

Best Odds

u209.5 -110

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u208.5 -113

u209.5 -110

u206.5 -115

u207.5 -114

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Our trusted projections expect Jaxson Dart to throw 29.5 passes this week, on average: the fewest out of all quarterbacks.. Jaxson Dart comes in as one of the worst passers in football this year, averaging 157.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile.

-110 at bet365

Passing Yards

Marcus Mariota u207.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Projection 196.18 (Under)

Best Odds

Pick made: 2 days ago

EV Model Rating

u206.5 -111

u207.5 -110

u207.5 -115

u207.5 -114

The projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Marcus Mariota to attempt 31.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.. Marcus Mariota's throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 76.3% to 63.2%.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Deebo Samuel o42.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Projection 49.55 (Over)

Best Odds

o42.5 -111

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o42.5 -111

o43.5 -110

o42.5 -114

o43.5 -110

o42.5 -114

The Commanders may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. This week, Deebo Samuel Sr. is expected by the projection model to slot into the 83rd percentile among WRs with 7.4 targets.. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this year (25.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.6%).. Deebo Samuel Sr. comes in as one of the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 47.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 75th percentile.. The New York Giants defense has yielded the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (159.0) to wide receivers this year.

-111 at DraftKings

Receiving Yards

Tyrone Tracy Jr. o13.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Projection 15.58 (Over)

Best Odds

o13.5 -114

Pick made: an hour ago

EV Model Rating

o14.5 -110

o13.5 -114

o14.5 -110

o13.5 -117

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).. The New York O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all passing game metrics across the board.. This year, the feeble Washington Commanders defense has conceded a whopping 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in football.. The Washington Commanders pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. RBs this year, conceding 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.

-114 at FanDuel

Receiving Yards

Wan'Dale Robinson u58.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Projection 55.23 (Under)

Best Odds

u58.5 -110

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

u58.5 -113

u58.5 -110

u56.5 -114

u58.5 -115

u57.5 -108

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. Wan'Dale Robinson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year represents a noteable regression in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate.

-110 at bet365

Rushing Yards

Jaxson Dart o27.5 Rushing Yards (-112)

Projection 37.35 (Over)

Best Odds

o27.5 -112

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o27.5 -112

o29.5 -110

o28.5 -114

o28.5 -118

o28.5 -110

The model projects the New York Giants as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).. Jaxson Dart has generated 34.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to QBs (94th percentile).. Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Commanders defense this year.

-112 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Tyrone Tracy Jr. o47.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Projection 56.38 (Over)

Best Odds

o47.5 -113

Pick made: 11 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o47.5 -113

o49.5 -110

o51.5 -114

o48.5 -115

o49.5 -125

The model projects the New York Giants as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).. Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (136 per game) vs. the Commanders defense this year.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Washington's group of DTs has been awful this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football. in football.

-113 at DraftKings

Rushing Yards

Marcus Mariota u29.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Projection 25.24 (Under)

Best Odds

u30.5 -114

Pick made: yesterday

EV Model Rating

u29.5 -113

u29.5 -110

u30.5 -114

u29.5 -110

u30.5 -118

The Commanders may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The leading projections forecast the Commanders to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.. The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a lowly 55.3 per game on average).

-114 at FanDuel

Rushing Attempts

Jaxson Dart o5.5 Rushing Attempts (-135)

Projection 7.57 (Over)

Best Odds

o5.5 -135

Pick made: 7 minutes ago

EV Model Rating

o5.5 -135

o5.5 -140

The model projects the New York Giants as the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.1% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Giants are forecasted by the projection model to run 65.7 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the New York Giants this year (a staggering 60.2 per game on average).. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to earn 7.9 carries this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.. Jaxson Dart isn't afraid to be involved in the run game, making up 19.6% of his team's rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among QBs.

-135 at bet365

Spread

68% picking N.Y. Giants

32% 32%

68% 68%

Total Picks WAS 195, NYG 409

Spread

WAS

NYG

Spread

Total

61% picking Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Under

39% 39%

61% 61%

Total PicksWAS 156, NYG 240

Total

Over

Under

Total

WAS vs NYG Props

Player

Prop

Projection

Best Odds

Projection Rating

C. Rodriguez Jr.

running back RB • Washington

Prop

0.5

Receptions Made

Projection

0.6

Best Odds

Over

+155

bet365

Prop

0.5 Receptions Made

Projection

0.6

Best Odds

Over

+155

Over

Under

o0.5 +155

u0.5 -190

o0.5 +145

u0.5 -190

Projection Rating

The Commanders may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 18.8% Route Participation% this season conveys a material gain in his pass game usage over last season's 6.6% mark. This year, the feeble Giants pass defense has yielded a monstrous 85.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-largest rate in the league. The New York Giants safeties project as the 9th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

T. Tracy Jr.

running back RB • N.Y. Giants

Prop

2.5

Receptions Made

Projection

2.01

Best Odds

Under

-155

bet365

Prop

2.5 Receptions Made

Projection

2.01

Best Odds

Under

-155

Over

Under

o2.5 +125

u2.5 -155

o2.5 +120

u2.5 -160

o2.5 +134

u2.5 -182

o2.5 +148

u2.5 -200

Projection Rating

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

D. Samuel

wide receiver WR • Washington

Prop

4.5

Receptions Made

Projection

4.41

Best Odds

Under

-102

fanduel

Prop

4.5 Receptions Made

Projection

4.41

Best Odds

Under

-102

Over

Under

o4.5 -110

u4.5 -120

o4.5 -110

u4.5 -120

o4.5 -129

u4.5 -104

o4.5 -124

u4.5 -103

o4.5 -130

u4.5 -102

Projection Rating

W. Robinson

wide receiver WR • N.Y. Giants

Prop

5.5

Receptions Made

Projection

5.18

Best Odds

Under

-120

bet365

Prop

5.5 Receptions Made

Projection

5.18

Best Odds

Under

-120

Over

Under

o5.5 -110

u5.5 -120

o5.5 -110

u5.5 -120

o5.5 +105

u5.5 -139

o5.5 +105

u5.5 -135

o5.5 +118

u5.5 -158

Projection Rating

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

T. Johnson

tight end TE • N.Y. Giants

Prop

3.5

Receptions Made

Projection

3.39

Best Odds

Under

-135

draftkings

Prop

3.5 Receptions Made

Projection

3.39

Best Odds

Under

-135

Over

Under

o3.5 +115

u3.5 -145

o3.5 +115

u3.5 -150

o3.5 +111

u3.5 -148

o3.5 +106

u3.5 -135

o3.5 +114

u3.5 -152

Projection Rating

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Giants to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

D. Slayton

wide receiver WR • N.Y. Giants

Prop

2.5

Receptions Made

Projection

2.60

(Season avg.)

Best Odds

Over

Under

Prop

2.5 Receptions Made

Season Avg.

2.60

Best Odds

Over

-113

Under

-110

Over

Under

o2.5 -115

u2.5 -115

o2.5 -115

u2.5 -115

o2.5 -117

u2.5 -114

o2.5 -113

u2.5 -114

o2.5 -120

u2.5 -110

Darius Slayton has gone over 2.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

T. McLaurin

wide receiver WR • Washington

Prop

4.5

Receptions Made

Projection

3.83

(Season avg.)

Best Odds

Over

Under

Prop

4.5 Receptions Made

Season Avg.

3.83

Best Odds

Over

+105

Under

-119

Over

Under

o4.5 +100

u4.5 -130

o4.5 +105

u4.5 -140

o4.5 -103

u4.5 -130

o4.5 -107

u4.5 -119

o4.5 +102

u4.5 -136

Terry McLaurin has gone over 4.5 in 2 of his last 6 games.

N. Brown

wide receiver WR • Washington

Prop

2.5

Receptions Made

Projection

1.33

(Season avg.)

Best Odds

Over

Under

Prop

2.5 Receptions Made

Season Avg.

1.33

Best Odds

Over

+148

Under

-165

Over

Under

o2.5 +135

u2.5 -165

o2.5 +125

u2.5 -165

o2.5 +137

u2.5 -190

o2.5 +148

u2.5 -200

Noah Brown has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 3 games.

J. McNichols

running back RB • Washington

Prop

1.5

Receptions Made

Projection

1.38

(Season avg.)

Best Odds

Over

Under

Prop

1.5 Receptions Made

Season Avg.

1.38

Best Odds

Over

+105

Under

-114

Over

Under

o1.5 +105

u1.5 -135

o1.5 +105

u1.5 -140

o1.5 -108

u1.5 -124

o1.5 -114

u1.5 -114

Jeremy McNichols has gone over 1.5 in 5 of his last 10 games.

B. Sinnott

tight end TE • Washington

Prop

1.5

Receptions Made

Projection

0.33

(Season avg.)

Best Odds

Over

Under

Prop

1.5 Receptions Made

Season Avg.

0.33

Best Odds

Over

-115

Under

-160

Over

Under

o1.5 -115

u1.5 -115

o2.5 +118

u2.5 -160

Ben Sinnott has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

WAS vs NYG Trends

Washington Trends

The Washington Commanders have covered the 2H Spread in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.04 Units / 29% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - Spread - 2nd Half

The Washington Commanders have hit the 2H Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+4.19 Units / 18% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 2nd Half

The Washington Commanders have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.30 Units / 13% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+3.25 Units / 13% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)

The Washington Commanders have only covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 22 games (-17.40 Units / -61% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - Spread - 1st Period

The Washington Commanders have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 21 games (-13.90 Units / -54% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 1st Period

The Washington Commanders have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 22 games (-12.35 Units / -42% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 1st Half

The Washington Commanders have only covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 22 games (-8.39 Units / -33% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - Spread - 1st Half

The Washington Commanders have only covered the 3Q Spread in 8 of their last 20 games (-7.25 Units / -29% ROI)

New York Trends

The New York Giants have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 40% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 1st Period

The New York Giants have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 34% ROI)

The New York Giants have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)

The New York Giants have hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 games (+7.35 Units / 38% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 1st Half

The New York Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.85 Units / 68% ROI)

The New York Giants have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+6.55 Units / 61% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - Full Game

The New York Giants have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.75 Units / 60% ROI)

The New York Giants have only hit the 1H Team Total Under in 6 of their last 19 games (-9.25 Units / -42% ROI)

The New York Giants have only covered the 2Q Spread in 5 of their last 17 games (-9.15 Units / -46% ROI)

The New York Giants have only hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 17 games (-8.65 Units / -45% ROI)

The New York Giants have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 17 games (-7.05 Units / -41% ROI)

The New York Giants have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 16 games (-5.10 Units / -32% ROI)

WAS

NYG

Game Line - MoneyLine - 2nd Half

The New York Giants have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 20 games (-3.80 Units / -17% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1st Period

Total

'blueminer000' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Over (46.5)

blueminer000 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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'hungcodon' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.0)

hungcodon is #10 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (8-4-0) and +5150 units on the season.

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WAS

NYG

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'blueminer000' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.5)

blueminer000 is #10 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (9-4-0) and +4650 units on the season.

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NYG

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'anibalbas' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Under (47.5)

anibalbas is #2 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (11-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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'Manning2008SB' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.5)

Manning2008SB is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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NYG

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'Manning2008SB' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Over (46.5)

Manning2008SB is #2 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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'Gary64' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.0)

Gary64 is #3 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (9-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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WAS

NYG

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'gamble04' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Over (47.5)

gamble04 is #4 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-3-0) and +5250 units on the season.

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'CappersClub' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Under (47.5)

CappersClub is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'CappersClub' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.0)

CappersClub is #5 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (10-1-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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WAS

NYG

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Total

'tolro234' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Under (47.5)

tolro234 is #6 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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'tolro234' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.0)

tolro234 is #6 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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WAS

NYG

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'puppucci' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+2.5)

puppucci is #7 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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NYG

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'puppucci' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Under (47.5)

puppucci is #7 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (8-5-0) and +5650 units on the season.

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'jerem14' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (-2.0)

jerem14 is #8 on picking games that Washington is in with a record of (7-1-0) and +5300 units on the season.

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NYG

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'RAZORAZE283' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Over (46.5)

RAZORAZE283 is #8 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (8-1-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'london79' is picking N.Y. Giants to cover (+2.5)

london79 is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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NYG

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'london79' picks Washington vs N.Y. Giants to go Over (47.5)

london79 is #9 on picking games that N.Y. Giants are in with a record of (7-5-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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