Darnold has cashed the Over in TDs in three of his last five appearances. He threw for four touchdowns in Week 9 against the Washington Commanders, and the Rams' pass defense isn't great.
This is a big number for a tight end who saw three red-zone targets last week, just one behind George Kittle’s league-leading four at the position. It might look like a long shot, but Matthew Stafford has been on fire with four passing touchdowns and no interceptions over his last three games. The Rams also kept throwing late last week, even with a comfortable lead. Parkinson has only one touchdown this season (last week at +950), but he’s had at least one red-zone target in four straight games and led the Rams’ tight ends in snap share last week at 57%. Stafford leans on his tight ends near the goal line — they’ve accounted for seven of his 25 touchdown passes this season.
The Rams have shifted into cruise control and covered the number in each of their four consecutive wins. Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford has also paced the league in adjusted EPA per play and success rate while throwing four 7.3 yards per attempt and a 67.7 completion percentage during the winning streak. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns without an interception, too. Obviously, Seattle QB Sam Darnold has also been a statistical darling, but I’m anticipating the Los Angeles defense to do just enough to keep him off balance Sunday. So, with this spread below the key number of 3, I’m happy to take the home team – especially with Stafford playing at an elite level.
The Rams are rolling and can pull away from the NFC West pack with a win at home in Week 11. Los Angeles has to tame this Seattle defense, but has done a great job keeping QB Matt Stafford clean and Sean McVay’s play-action offense will keep the Seahawks guessing. As for the Seattle offense, this is a significant step up in opposition on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles’ zone-centric schemes will limit the Seahawks’ downfield looks and force Sam Darnold into a grinder of a game against a defense ranked among the best in third down defense and red-zone stands.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Rams to pass on 62.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. With a 59.7% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league in these situations has been the Rams.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.4 per game) this year.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has received 14.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Seattle's offense near the end zone in this game at 31.1%.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accumulated many more air yards this year (118.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Rams to pass on 62.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. With a 59.7% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year, the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league in these situations has been the Rams.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 38.8 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. Sam Darnold's 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable boost in his passing accuracy over last year's 66.2% mark.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Rams to pass on 62.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.4 per game) this year.. With an outstanding record of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Matthew Stafford rates as one of the leading passers in the league this year.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. Sam Darnold's 71.1% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable boost in his passing accuracy over last year's 66.2% mark.. Sam Darnold's pass-game effectiveness has been refined this season, totaling 9.22 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 7.98 rate last season.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. Kenneth Walker III's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 88.6% to 91.7%.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. In this week's contest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is anticipated by our trusted projection set to slot into the 99th percentile among wide receivers with 12.3 targets.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 39.6% Target% this season indicates a substantial growth in his passing game utilization over last season's 24.3% rate.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop.. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.
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