Detroit @ Washington Picks & Props

Jahmyr Gibbs has cashed the Over once in the last two games, and Washington's rush defense is poor, ranking 22nd in the NFL. 

Payback is a bitch and the Lions will use last year’s upset loss to the Commanders in the playoffs as motivation in Week 10. That means Dan Campbell & Co. will pour it on and kick the Commies while they’re down. Washington’s defense is dreadful, sitting in the bottom third of the NFL is most pass defensive metrics. It’s given up 34 “home run” plays of 20-plus receiving yards – tied for worst in the NFL – and this man-heavy coverage (with multiple injuries in the secondary) is going to get exposed by Detroit WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown. St. Brown rates as of the best WRs vs. man coverage and his ability to pick up yards after the catch really twists the knife on Washington, which has allowed the second most YAC this season. Those bonus gains will bet St. Brown Over his longest reception prop total in Week 10. 

The Commanders are in bad shape with Jayden Daniels done for the season and the Lions on deck in Week 10. Washington has leaned into running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt heavily in the past month and a half, with JCM recording 12 or more carries in four of his last five games. Washington runs at one of the highest rates in the league and without its QB1, could be hitting the ground even more as it tries to keep Detroit’s pass rush away from Marcus Mariota. Most projections for Croskey-Merritt are north of 12 attempts with a ceiling closer to 14 carries. I feel his prop pricing is a bit tempered this week due to a spot on the injury report. However, this wasn’t for anything serious but rather for dental work, which won’t slow down his rushing attempts in Week 10.

Pro Bowl RB Jahymr Gibbs is coming off a game where he was contained. Detroit's offense had trouble executing against a blitz-happy Vikings stop unit that was constantly generating pressure. That won't be the case this week against a Commanders squad that ranks 27th in the league in defensive EPA. That D has gotten even worse lately after losing No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore and top pass rusher Dorance Armstrong to injuries. The Commanders sit near the bottom of the NFL in red-zone defense while allowing a whopping 4.7 touchdowns per game over their last three contests. Before last week, Gibbs had scored a TD in 16 of his previous 20 games. 

Lions OC John Morton said Thursday that rookie Isaac TeSlaa will “see the field more moving forward” and plans to get him more involved this week against Washington. Morton added that the staff is “very pleased with his development” and plans to mix him in by giving other receivers a breather in Week 10. It could just be coach-speak, but getting any piece of this offense at +500 or better with a defined role is rare. I’ll back Morton’s word and take a shot on the rookie, who’s already flashed his upside and draws a favorable matchup.

The Lions are coming off a rare poor performance at home, where they lost 27-24 to the Vikings. This is a get-right spot for them against a Washington team in turmoil. The Commanders have a below-average pass rush while their linebackers and secondary are among the worst in the NFL. Their offense was already struggling due to a slew of injuries at WR but they also just lost franchise QB Jayden Daniels to what looks like a serious injury. The Lions are third in the league in defensive DVOA and eighth in offensive DVOA. They'll be highly motivated to run up the score, given their Week 9 loss and their playoff loss to the Commanders in January.

This is a bounce-back spot for the Lions, and the Commanders could be without No. 1 quarterback Jayden Daniels after he sustained a left elbow injury that was serious enough for him to exit the Week 9 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Of course, Washington also ranks 17th in defensive DVOA while allowing the sixth-highest EPA per play, so I expect the Detroit offense to have a big day and score enough points to cover the number.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Lions being a big 8-point favorite in this game.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to pass on 53.1% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip among all teams this week.. At the present time, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Lions.. This week, Jared Goff is anticipated by the model to have the 10th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.3. . Jared Goff's 194.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a remarkable decline in his passing prowess over last season's 266.0 figure.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.. In this game, Deebo Samuel Sr. is projected by the projections to slot into the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.4 targets.. Deebo Samuel Sr.'s 27.4% Target% this year indicates a noteable growth in his air attack utilization over last year's 18.6% figure.

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Lions being a big 8-point favorite in this game.. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Detroit Lions to run on 46.9% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.

Right now, the 6th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (41.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.. The predictive model expects Marcus Mariota to total 7.6 rush attempts in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this game (28.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.2% in games he has played).. With an exceptional rate of 30.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (90th percentile), Marcus Mariota ranks among the best running quarterbacks in football this year.

The Washington Commanders may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) since they be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota.. The Commanders are a huge 8-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. The Detroit Lions linebackers grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Right now, the 6th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (41.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.. At the moment, the 7th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.. The predictive model expects Marcus Mariota to total 7.6 rush attempts in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks.. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this game (28.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.2% in games he has played).