The Seahawks are moving the ball efficiently, and Smith-Njigba’s hot streak means defenses have to respect the passing game. Even if the hosts do most of their damage through the air, I expect them to call Charbonnet’s number inside the 5-yard line, and his thumping running style should take care of the rest.
Knight was held to 27 yards on nine carries against the Cowboys piss-poor run defense last week. Arizona's other RB Emari Demercado returned from an ankle injury and balled out, rushing for 79 yards on 14 carries. Demercado is the more efficient runner and has more big-play potential. Knight will still play a role at the goal line and on third-downs but expect fewer carries moving forward. A lower usage rate is just one reason to fade Knight on Sunday. The Cardinals are 7-point dogs against the Seahawks so we could see a negative game script and more passing for Arizona. In addition, Seattle allows just 63.1 rushing yards per game on 3.2 ypa to opposing RBs — both numbers good for second-best in the league.
Rashid Shaheed was a big name move during the trade deadline, leaving the passive passing game of New Orleans for the Seahawks’ air attack. Shaheed will help Seattle a lot, but more as a player who can stretch the field and take attention away from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His first game in this new playbook with QB Sam Darnold comes against Arizona’s zone-centric schemes that utilize two high safeties to prevent big plays over the top. Shaheed’s speed is great against man coverage but his production sinks versus zone and Darnold has struggled versus zone schemes the past two seasons as a starter. Shaheed’s yardage total is ticking up with people expecting big things in his debut but we won’t see the same target share as he did in NOLA and many player projections come in well below 40.5 yards, with a low of 30.65 yards.
As long as Jacoby Brissett is under center, Trey McBride should keep producing. He’s seen 11 red-zone targets over three games with Brissett, converting four of them into touchdowns—already doubling his total from all of 2024. McBride has scored in every game Brissett has started and leads all tight ends in red-zone looks since Week 6, even after missing Week 8. His 33 targets since Week 6 rank tied for eighth in all of football, with six of the seven guys ahead of him playing an extra game. I wouldn’t play it much lower than +155, but I’m in on McBride to score in his fourth straight game at +140 or better.
Heading into Week 10, Seattle sits Top 10 in many advanced measurements and has allowed more than 20 points just once in eight games. The Seahawks defense is getting healthier after injuries plagued this secondary earlier in the schedule and the defensive line is the beating heart of this stop unit. They’re getting tremendous pressure on rival passers with just a four-man rush, sitting fourth in pressure rate and third in sacks (27). Brissett suffered five sacks in the win over Dallas and has been sacked 13 times in his three starts. Arizona ranks 25th in pass block rating at PFF and has allowed Brissett to feel pressure on 35% of dropbacks. The Cardinals find themselves on the road for the second straight game on a short week after playing at Dallas on Monday. Add in a chance of rain for Lumen Field and I like the home team below the key number.
The Seahawks are analytical darlings and bookended their Week 8 bye with double-digit wins over teams that punched postseason tickets last season. It’s a little bit of a different story for the Cardinals. Arizona has dropped five straight ahead of its Week 9 game against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football, and the Cards only road win was against the New Orleans Saints.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.. While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has accounted for 16.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Seattle's pass game near the end zone this week at 30.9%.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has notched many more air yards this season (121.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).
The Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. With a very bad total of 145.0 adjusted passing yards per game (24th percentile), Jacoby Brissett stands among the worst QBs in the NFL this year.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year (68.9% Adjusted Completion%).. The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, allowing 6.80 adjusted yards-per-target: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Seattle's safety corps has been exceptional this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 131.7 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 52.2 per game on average).. The Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.
The Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.. Trey McBride has totaled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).. Trey McBride's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 79.2% to 73.3%.. Trey McBride's 6.9 adjusted yards per target this year shows a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 8.4 mark.. Trey McBride's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a remarkable drop-off in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 4.6% mark.
A rushing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.8% pass rate.. The Seahawks have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 51.4 plays per game.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's skills in generating extra yardage have declined this year, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.55 figure last year.. The Cardinals pass defense has displayed strong efficiency vs. WRs this year, surrendering 7.30 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the league.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 131.4 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.. This year, the deficient Cardinals defense has allowed a colossal 66.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-most in football.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 10th-worst in football.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 131.4 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.. Opposing teams have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.. Kenneth Walker III's 6.9 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a material boost in his pass-catching ability over last year's 6.1 mark.. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Arizona's group of safeties has been awful this year, ranking as the 10th-worst in football.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.. The predictive model expects the Cardinals to be the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 131.4 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 52.2 per game on average).. The Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.8 per game) this year.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 131.4 plays on offense called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The 4th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 52.2 per game on average).. While Emari Demercado has garnered 15.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Arizona's run game this week at 44.0%.. Emari Demercado's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year indicates a substantial progression in his running talent over last year's 14.0 mark.. With an exceptional record of 7.67 adjusted yards per carry (98th percentile), Emari Demercado stands as one of the top pure rushers in the NFL this year.
A rushing game script is suggested by the Seahawks being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league (41.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Seattle Seahawks.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have 131.4 plays on offense called: the 4th-most on the slate this week.. With an excellent total of 48.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Kenneth Walker III ranks as one of the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.. This year, the fierce Arizona Cardinals run defense has conceded a measly 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's ground game: the 23rd-best rate in football.
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