Ja'Tavion Sanders Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Sanders
tight end TE • Carolina
New Orleans @ Carolina Picks & Props
NO vs CAR Picks
NFL Picks
Spread
CAR -5.5 (-105)
Sam Farley
Betting Analyst
The Carolina Panthers have now won in Bryce Young's previous four starts and he’s been helped by Rico Dowdle who has grabbed the RB1 job from Chuba Hubbard, after some incredible performances that have seen him third in the NFL’s rushing charts, with just three starts to his name. With just one win to their name it’s not a surprise that the New Orleans Saints are 1-7 ATS as an underdog, but given the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in conference games, and 6-3 overall, we have to back them to cover the spread.
Score a Touchdown
Tetairoa McMillan Score a Touchdown (Yes: +190)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Is the Panthers’ passing attack elite? No. But getting a WR1 with a 26% target share and 43% air-yard share at +190 for a touchdown in a great matchup is pretty close. It might be the Rico Dowdle show in Carolina, but rookie Tetairoa McMillan is a bit long for a TD this week. Bryce Young is coming off a shaky performance in a game the Panthers still won as big underdogs against the Packers and the Saints aren't Green Bay. With defenses likely keying on Dowdle, McMillan could benefit from softer coverage, especially as Carolina controls more possession with Tyler Shough’s favorite target, Rashid Shaheed, now in Seattle. Only six receivers in the league have more receptions of 10-plus yards than McMillan, and his 10 red-zone targets rank eighth among wideouts. I’d play this down to +165.
Score a Touchdown
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Chris Olave is the second-most targeted receiver in the league, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, and the Saints receiver should see even more production with Rashid Shaheed recently dealt to Seattle. Olave thrives against zone defenses, and he's a great bet to score against a Panthers unit that deploys it at the third-highest rate in the league.
Score a Touchdown
Juwan Johnson Score a Touchdown (Yes: +425)
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
Johnson has been Tyler Slough’s safety blanket since the rookie took over the starting gig. He drew the second most targets in Slough’s five quarters behind Shaheed, who is currently on a flight to the Pacific Northwest. Johnson was able to find the end zone against the Rams last weekend and now faces a Panthers defense that ranks fifth in yards allowed to TEs along with four TDs to the position this year. Carolina plays the highest rate of zone coverage in the land and Johnson has been very good at finding holes in that coverage and rumbling for yards after the catch. The big bodied tight end gets in at a great price at +425 in Week 10, with most books around +300 for his ATTD prop.
Receptions Made
Chris Olave u5.5 Receptions Made (-102)
Projection 4.89 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 57.3% pass rate.. Chris Olave's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 73.7% to 65.7%.. This year, the daunting Carolina Panthers defense has yielded a mere 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 10th-best rate in the league.
Passing Yards
Bryce Young o171.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 198.05 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.. The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their pass rush.
Passing Yards
Tyler Shough o175.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 184.01 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
A throwing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. When it comes to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Carolina's collection of LBs has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+128)
Projection 0.42 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Interceptions Thrown
Bryce Young u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-114)
Projection 0.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Panthers, who are favored by 5.5 points.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 50.8% of their opportunities: the lowest clip among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast Bryce Young to attempt 31.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 5th-fewest in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Tetairoa McMillan o40.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 62.03 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.. The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their pass rush.
Receiving Yards
Ja'Tavion Sanders o16.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Projection 22.38 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).. As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.. The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (60.0) to TEs this year.. The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (80.2%) versus tight ends this year (80.2%).
Receiving Yards
Juwan Johnson o36.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 44.26 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
A throwing game script is suggested by the Saints being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's game.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (81.8% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last year (66.6%).. This week, Juwan Johnson is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.2 targets.. The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (83.3%) to tight ends this year (83.3%).
Rushing Yards
Alvin Kamara o36.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 58.71 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the most run-focused team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 42.7% run rate.. The projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Alvin Kamara to notch 15.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's collection of LBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Rushing Yards
Bryce Young o9.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 16.41 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Panthers, who are favored by 5.5 points.. The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 49.2% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The 9th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a massive 58.9 per game on average).. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (134 per game) against the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
NO vs CAR Consensus Picks
NO vs CAR Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Devaughn Vele Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
D. Vele
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
Brandin Cooks Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
B. Cooks
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
James Mitchell Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Mitchell
tight end TE • Carolina
Trevor Etienne Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. Etienne
running back RB • Carolina
Hunter Renfrow Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
H. Renfrow
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Zaire Mitchell-Paden Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
Z. Mitchell-Paden
tight end TE • New Orleans
Tyler Shough Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
T. Shough
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Mitchell Evans Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
M. Evans
tight end TE • Carolina
Juwan Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
J. Johnson
tight end TE • New Orleans
Trey Palmer Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
T. Palmer
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
Foster Moreau Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
F. Moreau
tight end TE • New Orleans
Tommy Tremble Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. Tremble
tight end TE • Carolina
Alvin Kamara Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
A. Kamara
running back RB • New Orleans
Taysom Hill Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
T. Hill
tight end TE • New Orleans
Xavier Legette Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
X. Legette
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Brycen Tremayne Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
B. Tremayne
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Tetairoa McMillan Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
T. McMillan
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Chuba Hubbard Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
C. Hubbard
running back RB • Carolina
Mason Tipton Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
M. Tipton
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
Jimmy Horn Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Horn Jr.
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Chris Olave Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
C. Olave
wide receiver WR • New Orleans
Rico Dowdle Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
R. Dowdle
running back RB • Carolina
Jalen Coker Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
J. Coker
wide receiver WR • Carolina
Bryce Young Score a Touchdown Props • Carolina
B. Young
quarterback QB • Carolina
Devin Neal Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
D. Neal
running back RB • New Orleans
Jack Stoll Score a Touchdown Props • New Orleans
J. Stoll
tight end TE • New Orleans
NO vs CAR Trends
New Orleans Trends
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Over
Under
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Over
Under
The New Orleans Saints have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.90 Units / 45% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Over
Under
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 1H Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)
The New Orleans Saints have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+1.05 Units / 6% ROI)
NO
CAR
The New Orleans Saints have only hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 20 games (-10.30 Units / -47% ROI)
NO
CAR
The New Orleans Saints have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 20 games (-10.00 Units / -44% ROI)
Over
Under
The New Orleans Saints have only covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 20 games (-9.95 Units / -37% ROI)
NO
CAR
The New Orleans Saints have only hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 17 games (-8.30 Units / -43% ROI)
Over
Under
The New Orleans Saints have only hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 20 games (-8.20 Units / -36% ROI)
Carolina Trends
The Carolina Panthers have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.60 Units / 32% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.70 Units / 8% ROI)
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 8 of their last 17 games (+6.58 Units / 38% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.93 Units / 66% ROI)
Over
Under
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 31% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 52% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have only covered the 2Q Spread in 5 of their last 17 games (-8.70 Units / -44% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 18 games (-7.20 Units / -36% ROI)
Over
Under
The Carolina Panthers have only covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 19 games (-6.70 Units / -31% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 2Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 17 games (-5.25 Units / -29% ROI)
NO
CAR
The Carolina Panthers have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 19 games (-4.60 Units / -22% ROI)
NO
CAR