New England @ Tampa Bay Picks & Props

Bucs RB Bucky Irving has been ruled out for Week 10 which means another start for Rachaad White. White could find it tough to find running room against a New England defense that allows a league-low 75.4 rushing yards per game. That said, the Pats are vulnerable to backs in the passing game, ranking 26th in the NFL with 40.8 receiving yards per game allowed to the position. White’s biggest strengths are his pass-catching and pass-blocking abilities, which keeps him on the field on third downs. He's logged more than 20 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should eclipse that number again. 

I like the Buccaneers in this spot at home and coming off their Week 9 bye. Tampa has a handful of statement wins on the ledger, and I’m expecting the extra week of rest and preparation to make the difference in this game. Look for the Tampa Bay defense to show up and play New England quarterback Drake Maye tough. He’s been sacked six times in consecutive weeks, and the Pats offensive line ranks 31st in pass block win rate for the year, after all. Additionally, while the New England defense is popping in most advanced metrics, the Patriots also rank 25th in defensive DVOA – which accounts for strength of schedule. New England ranking 28th in pressure percentage and 23rd in pass rush win rate also has my attention because there is a notable gap in Tampa QB Baker Mayfield’s numbers when pressured and when throwing from a clean pocket. 

The Bucs are coming off a bye, but they might not be getting much healthier. Bucky Irving still isn’t taking contact midway through the week, and Chris Godwin missed Wednesday’s practice with a lingering leg issue. This could be a good time to jump early on Tez Johnson, who should still operate as the No. 3 option even if Godwin returns. The rookie led Tampa Bay in receptions and yards back in Week 8, when he closed at +250 for a touchdown. He was +700 the week before that and scored against Detroit, also cashing a +350 TD prop in Week 6. New England could be missing top corner Christian Gonzalez, who left Week 9 with a head injury. I’d grab this now at +275 and would play it down to +220 if Godwin is ruled out.

With a remarkable 12.9% Red Zone Target Rate (88th percentile) this year, Rachaad White rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in the league.. Rachaad White ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league among running backs, catching an excellent 91.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a staggering 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.. This year, the strong New England Patriots run defense has conceded a mere 0.33 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call just 61.3 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. Cade Otton has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.0%).. Cade Otton's receiving skills have diminished this year, averaging just 3.2 adjusted receptions vs 4.2 last year.. The New England Patriots linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call just 61.3 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 124.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.. This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a feeble 7.3 yards.. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Patriots.. The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to total 5.2 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.. When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 94th percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a striking 39.0 per game.. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.. Hunter Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 9.74 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 7.86 figure last season.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call just 61.3 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. Cade Otton has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.0%).. After accumulating 35.0 air yards per game last season, Cade Otton has significantly declined this season, now averaging 24.0 per game.. Cade Otton has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (33.0) this season than he did last season (44.0).. Cade Otton's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a remarkable decline in his effectiveness in space over last season's 5.6% rate.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (63.0% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Patriots.. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.. This year, the anemic Buccaneers defense has surrendered a staggering 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the most in the NFL.. This year, the weak Buccaneers pass defense has given up a staggering 90.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the largest rate in football.

Rachaad White has run a route on 45.3% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.. In this week's contest, Rachaad White is anticipated by the model to land in the 94th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets.. Rachaad White ranks as one of the best possession receivers in the league among running backs, catching an excellent 91.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.. This year, the shaky Patriots defense has been torched for a colossal 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in football.. This year, the feeble New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered a staggering 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 3rd-highest rate in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see only 124.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.. Stefon Diggs's 68.1% Route Participation Rate this season represents a remarkable decline in his passing offense usage over last season's 83.6% mark.. After accumulating 64.0 air yards per game last year, Stefon Diggs has fallen off this year, now pacing 50.0 per game.. Stefon Diggs has posted many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).. This year, the stout Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up a paltry 61.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are forecasted by the projection model to call just 61.3 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.. The New England Patriots linebackers grade out as the 10th-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.