Best NFL Picks Today

Dallas has allowed the highest dropback success rate while ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA through four weeks, so Daniels is set up for success in his second career start. The Bucs are also massive underdogs, so there will be a positive passing game script for Daniels and the offense. I also particularly value Tampa Bay offensive coordinator and playcaller Zac Robinson being ultra conservative with Daniels, and the rookie posting a 70.4 completion percentage and 3.9 aDoT in Week 4. Look for the short completions to continue piling up against Dallas on Thursday Night Football.

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt and the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down with go-to receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) sidelined Sunday, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) exiting in the first quarter. It’s bad news for an offense ranking 28th in EPA per play. Of course, the Jaguars are executing on both sides of the ball, and I particularly value them allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, sixth-lowest rushing success rate and fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. It’s going to be another long day for the Philly offense in London.

Cleveland comes in with something this club hasn’t felt in a long, long time: momentum. The Browns are on a three-game streak and playing on extra rest after winning last Thursday. Cleveland ranks Top 10 in EPA allowed per play during this stretch, with the pass rush coming to life. The Browns have 12 sacks and have seen a surge in pressure rate without leaning into the blitz, getting work out of Jared Verse and the front four. That’s bad news for New York QB Geno Smith, who’s been great when kept clean (No. 9 at PFF) but has his rating drop to 20th under pressure.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.  The defense isn’t living up to its top billing in the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totals 475 yards of offense.

While there’s no denying Jackson’s worth, the Ravens are used to “breaking the glass” in case of emergency. Baltimore is 6-11 SU without Jackson at QB but 8-9 ATS in those outings. The Falcons not only take the field on a short week, but their public perception is pumping with positivity after two prime time wins. I feel that’s taxing this team too much on SNF. The Ravens’ defense is the highest rated stop unit Atlanta has faced this season and Baltimore head coach Jesse Minter is focusing on improving the run stop. This feels like a rock fight with both teams selling out to stop the run. I’ll buy back the big move on the Ravens, hanging on to that half-point hook for dear life.