Best NFL Picks Today

Short weeks often breed weirdo results. Asking the Dallas Cowboys defense to keep the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 points away is a tall order. Tampa has a backup QB in Jalon Daniels at the wheel, but he showed he could at least do damage with his legs in his Week 4 start against Green Bay. The Cowboys have been shredded by dual-threat QBs in 2026, allowing the most rushing yards to the position. Throw some running back Bucky Irving into the mix, and the Bucs can bully a shoddy Cowboys run stop. Dallas is 28th in rushing yards allowed per carry. While Tampa Bay is 0-4, those losses have come by a combined 20 points. The Bucs are bad but not this bad.

Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts threw for just 3.4 yards per attempt and the Eagles went 0-for-12 on third down with go-to receivers DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dallas Goedert (knee) sidelined Sunday, and Saquon Barkley (hamstring) exiting in the first quarter. It’s bad news for an offense ranking 28th in EPA per play. Of course, the Jaguars are executing on both sides of the ball, and I particularly value them allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, sixth-lowest rushing success rate and fifth-lowest third-down conversion percentage. It’s going to be another long day for the Philly offense in London.

The Las Vegas Raiders have put up at least 26 points in each of their first four games, and even solid defensive teams like the Kansas City Chiefs haven't slowed them. The New England Patriots can also pound the ball against a Raiders defense allowing 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. With both offenses showing teeth lately, I'm leaning towards the Over at 45.5 points.

The Vikings offense is a work in progress with new QB Kyler Murray under center. It went 0 for 3 in the red zone in an uncomfortable win over Miami in Week 4. Tight end Tyler Hockenson took a knee at the goal line in the final seconds, so those results aren’t as dismal as they appear. New Orleans has given up a butt-ton of points to start the season, sitting last in opponent points per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Saints second-year passer Tyler Shough has done well versus the blitz, according to his PFF rankings. He’s getting rid of the ball quickly, with the second lowest time in pocket and the second lowest pressure rate against. With injuries thinning out the rushing game, NOLA has had to pass on 66% of snaps, fourth most in the NFL. That’s led to at least 24 points in the first four games, coming against some very sound stop units.

The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.  The defense isn’t living up to its top billing in the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs. Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totals 475 yards of offense.

Lamar Jackson's status is up in the air but the latest reports don't sound positive for the Ravens QB. This Sunday Night Football contest will turn into a game of “keep-away” as both offenses are anchored in the run, sitting No. 1 and No. 3 in rushing play percentage. The Falcons go deep into the play clock before snapping the ball – at least with Penix Jr. under center. Atlanta has posted an average of 32:53 in time of possession the past two games. Offensively, Baltimore is methodical even with Jackson at the wheel. Should he sit out Week 5, this attack will run considerably slower with the backup QB and lean even more into RB Derrick Henry. Short gains with the clock ticking and two sound defenses clear a path to the Under on Sunday night.