Best NFL Picks Today

With the Saints allowing 12 touchdowns to opposing running backs through six games, I would recommend Warren to find the end zone to 60%. He's posted top-five ranks in yards per carry (6.5), yards after contact per attempt (3.94) and PFF elusive rating (98.5) across the past four weeks, and Warren is also a threat through the air with a league-high 14.1 yards per reception among backs during the run.

Target Jefferson for a TD here with Gardner expected to be sidelined for an overmatched Colts secondary. The Vikings’ No.1 receiver already has three scores this season, and Indy gave up a combined six passing touchdowns in road losses to Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.

Miami has been dreadful offensively, averaging just 14.0 PPG, while its defense is surrendering 2.75 points per drive. With Geno Smith facing little resistance through the air and New York boasting a solid defensive unit, I like the Jets to cover at home.

Chase’s anytime TD is playable below 50%. Cincinnati may need to lean on Burrow against Baltimore’s stronger run defense, and Chase has already scored eight touchdowns in 10 career meetings with the Ravens.

He's the AFC leader in yards per catch and has scored in half of Cleveland's games. He'll be facing one of the worst secondaries and pass rushes in the league. 

The Buccaneers’ luck could change this Sunday, starting with Baker Mayfield making progress in his return from a thumb injury. He was back on the practice field ahead of Sunday’s road clash with the Carolina Panthers. Another less-Swedish proverb is “defense travels”. That’s a good thing for Tampa, considering its stop unit has quietly crept up the defensive metrics and sits Top 10 in sexy stats like EPA allowed, opponent success rate and Defensive DVOA. The Panthers’ three wins have come against teams either starting a backup QB (Atlanta) or fielding a dreadful defense (Detroit) - or both (Philadelphia). This is a massive matchup for Todd Bowles and the half-point hook on the field goal seems too much for a divisional rivalry.

Robinson is a workhorse for Atlanta and could see an even bigger snap share with fellow RB Brian Robinson Jr. dealing with a hamstring injury. Bijan also faces a 49ers defense that allows the second most receiving yards to running backs. Week 7 projections for Robinson’s receiving output all sit north of 30 yards with a ceiling of 39. My number comes out to 33+ receiving yards.

Playable to 65%.

J.J. McCarthy had the second-highest interception-worthy throw rate among 33 qualified quarterbacks in 2025, only ahead of Tua Tagovailoa, who is no longer a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Under 43.5 is playable down to 42.5. Neither quarterback is generating many explosive throws, while Denver could get Patrick Surtain II back against an already limited Arizona receiving corps. That should make sustained scoring difficult.

I'd would back this touchdown prop to 46%. Bowers is a tight end by designation only, and he’s found the end zone in six of his past eight games for seven total touchdowns dating back to last season. The top Las Vegas target has lined up in the slot on 44.4% of his offensive snaps and out wide 38% of the time, so he’s a matchup nightmare for a Los Angeles defense that’s allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA the past two weeks.

This Over is in play up to 52% because slow starts have hurt Goff and the Lions this season, and I’m anticipating the Detroit offense to hit the ground running Sunday following their Week 6 bye. Goff has thrown for just 5.6 yards per attempt with a 23rd-ranked completion percentage over expected in the opening quarter this season, and his ranks in adjusted EPA per play and success rate climb from 30th and 24th in the first quarter to first and second across the final three frames.

Kenneth Walker is trading at 54% on Kalshi to score a touchdown on Sunday Night Football, and I'll hit the button at that price, as I put his chances closer to 60%. There's no reason to overthink this one. The Super Bowl MVP is returning to Seattle to face the team that didn't want to pay him. Andy Reid is one of the most creative red-zone play-callers in the history of the NFL, and the Chiefs strike me as a team that would go out of its way to ensure Walker finds the end zone in his return.

I was tempted to take the Eagles on the moneyline, but I'll roll with Dallas Goedert to score a touchdown at 31%, as I price his chances closer to 38%, creating a healthy edge. Goedert saw eight targets with Tanner McKee at quarterback last week against the Carolina Panthers, and he could be in line for another busy outing. With Joey Porter Jr. shadowing DeVonta Smith on the outside for Dallas, McKee may look Goedert's way in the red zone, especially with Smith facing a difficult matchup and Saquon Barkley likely to see a stacked box with McKee under center.