Best NFL Picks Today

Collins' first TD is playable up to 14%. In a lower-scoring game, I’d rather concentrate touchdown exposure on Houston’s best offensive player and likely target leader than force a longer-shot scorer into the card.

Pollard's rushing prop is playable up to 64+ yards. Indianapolis ranks last in rushing EPA allowed and run-stop win rate, while a competitive Tennessee game script should keep Pollard involved throughout the second half.

The odds make it an expensive prop, but the Panthers are going to be running the ball and killing the clock late. Philly is 27th in time of possession. So Hubbard will get a steady diet of carries. 

Freiermuth's anytime TD is playable up to 28%. He leads Pittsburgh in receiving touchdowns and has been highly efficient when targeted, while the Steelers' other weapons help create favorable coverage looks near the goal line.

Playable up to -125 or 92.5. Henry leads the league with 113 carries while averaging 95.2 YPG on the ground, and yet there's room for more with Jackson sidelined and the Browns dealing with injuries across the defensive line. Henry has gone past this O/U number in eight of his last 10 outings.

Skattebo's anytime TD is playable up to 50%. New Orleans has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the league and ranks 30th in defensive stuff rate, giving Skattebo a strong goal-line matchup if he gets short-yardage carries.

Play up to 35%. Brian Robinson Jr. has scored four rushing touchdowns on only 51 carries, converting four of his five red-zone attempts. With Atlanta leaning heavily on the ground game and Chicago missing key defenders, Robinson should get another scoring opportunity.

Hunter Henry has had his two most productive games of the year over the past two weeks. He's picked up a combined 106 yards on eight catches over the span, and scored a touchdown last Sunday against the Los Angeles Raiders. I like Henry to score a touchdown at 36% or lower.

Higbee's receiving Over is playable up to 42+ yards. He's cleared 62 yards in three straight games, leads the Rams in QB rating when targeted, and faces an Arizona defense allowing the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.

Only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs, who are averaging one per game. The Chargers will be without Tre Harris, while Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Brenen Thompson are all questionable.

Charlie Kolar might get the bulk of the tight end work, but Oronde Gadsden is the best pass-catcher, a real deep threat, and tied for the most red zone targets on the team.

Cousins' passing number looks inflated. Buffalo can devote extra attention to Brock Bowers and force Las Vegas' weak receiving corps to win elsewhere, while a potential Bills blowout could kill the pace and passing volume late.

Play this to 23% and avoid the heavy juice on Williams to score anytime.

He's opened Dallas' account in three of five games this season, and last week was the second time in three that he scored the game's opening touchdown.

Look for him to punish a Green Bay defense that has already surrendered seven red zone touchdown runs. 

Brock Purdy is 4-1 O/U on his rushing total this season and closed with a line of 25.5 yards last week. He's rushed for 29+ yards in all four Overs and projects for 29.4 yards on the ground Monday night, making 20+ yards at 44% the best +EV prop in this game. I'd buy it up to 54%. The Commanders are allowing 19.4 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs, the seventh-highest mark in the league. Jameis Winston (27 yards on a 2.5-yard total), Dak Prescott (26 yards on a 12.5-yard total), and Jalen Hurts (46 yards on a 30.5-yard total) all set season-high rushing marks against this defense, beating their closing rushing totals by an average of 17 yards. Purdy currently ranks sixth at his position in scramble yards and fifth in designed runs.