Best NFL Picks Today

The Falcons just watched Carolina tight end Darren Waller score two touchdowns in their Week 2 belly flop and face another TE with a nose for the end zone in Green Bay. Tucker Kraft scored six TDs in eight games before getting injured for the remainder of the season in 2025. In fact, Kraft struck for 13 touchdowns in his last 26 games going back to 2024. He’s yet to be targeted inside the red zone in 2026 but with the receiving corps missing bodies and Christian Watson playing through pain, Kraft could find himself running more routes (13th among all TE in routes run). Touchdown probabilities have Kraft’s chances at reeling in his first TD of the season between 30% and 41%. 

I got this at 2.8x with a fair price of 2.55x. It's the No. 2 TD on the Covers Anytime Value Index, and with Patrick Mahomes looking more pass than handoff in Week 2, this passing game could have a big three quarters of football against the Dolphins. Miami has a bottom-six defense in both EPA/play and success rate, but its dropback success rate and EPA/play rank as the second-worst unit in football. The Chiefs can do whatever they want on Sunday and put up 35+ points. Xavier Worthy has twice as many RZ targets through two games as Rashee Rice and is priced better. He also played more snaps and ran more routes than Rice in Week 2 and leads the team in target share at 20%. It's Worthy over Rice for me in Week 3.

I really wanted Quinshon Judkins at 2.25x against the Panthers, who are getting gashed on the ground. However, getting Denzel Boston at this price after two weeks of cashing still feels long, with a fair price around 3.2x. Judkins has not found any room to run through two games, but Boston already has a 21% target share and a whopping 52% of the air-yard share. The only wide receivers with a bigger AYS are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave — some big hitters. Boston can run the deep route for a score like he did in Week 1 or catch and run for yards like last week. He's beaten the Jaguars and Bucs. Surely, he can beat the Panthers, who gave up 59 points in Week 1 before having to play the worst QB tandem in the history of the sport in Week 2.

Elic Ayomanor might be WR2 facing a Giants defense that is on a short week and dealing with cluster injuries at corner. Davante Adams did whatever he wanted on MNF because of the lack of NFL talent at corner. Ayomanor should not be longer than 5.5x. He's playing better than Calvin Ridley and is getting targeted on 20% of his routes while sitting second on the team in air-yard share at 30%. He also has all of the WR red-zone targets at three through two games, with a TD. It's a longer shot here, but certainly +EV. The only thing knocking it is a bad pass offense, but the Eagles and Jets are a lot different than the Giants, who have allowed a red-zone touchdown on all six of their opponents' trips inside the 20.

Two of the top scoring defenses in the NFL up against two passing attacks that have left a lot to be desired over two weeks just screams like an Under to me. Points will be tough to come by here; the Pats have yet to give up a red-zone touchdown, while the Jags are allowing a score at just a 28% clip inside the 20. I'm riding this play as one of my best bets of the day.

The Bills are 2-0 to the Over this year due to their potent offense. However, their defense is my primary selling point here. Buffalo has been involved in two shootouts this season, a 36-31 win in Week 1 against Houston and a 41-31 victory against the Lions in Week 2 - coughing 368 yards per game as a result. I'm expecting the Chargers to finally put together a game under Mike McDaniel here, with a total that should be closer to 55.5. Punts will be few and far between on Sunday.

There are a lot of Jets angles I want here. The Lions have been awful at defending the TE position early in the season, as even the Saints had TDs from Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant in Week 1. The problem is that the Jets have a four-TE rotation, with Kenyon Sadiq at 5.1x being a possibility, but I'm looking elsewhere. Adonai Mitchell (4.1x) had 12 targets last week and leads the Jets in target and air-yard share, but I don't want to get cute when Garrett Wilson is 2.5x or better. It's an indoor game with a high total, and Wilson also ranks high on the Covers Anytime TD Value Index. The Jets could put up points against this toothless defense, and a move from 2.8x last week to 2.7x this week isn't enough for the setting and matchup.

Your TD card can't be littered with long shots, and getting a clear-cut No. 1 running back with the short-yardage role against the worst points-per-game defense at 1.87x is still a great deal. This should come with a fair price of 1.69x, or 59% vs. 53%. Every position has been padding stats against the Colts this year, and running backs are no exception. Only two other teams are giving up more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Colts, who gave up 41 points last week and got run over by Kenneth Walker, who likely should have had a TD count. In Week 2, they allowed 5.2 yards per rush, and in Week 1, that number was 5.5. It's another indoor game, and David Montgomery should look more like his Week 1 self than his Week 2 output, when he had two TDs on 20 carries.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat. Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass. Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after having his Vikings debut cut short due to a concussion in Week 1. Murray hasn’t been great against blitzes during this career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt. We’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.

The Ravens’ receiving corps is banged up with injuries to Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane, upping TE Mark Andrews spot in the pass-catching pecking order. The veteran tight end is heavily involved, playing in more than 70% of snaps and running the 12th most routes among all TEs. He’s reeled in 10 of 13 targets for just under 100 yards in two games. Andrews has been targeted only once inside the red zone yet faces a Dallas defense not only having issues with the run but also rival tight ends. The Cowboys have allowed 11 receptions to the position, two of which were for touchdowns. Touchdown probabilities park Andrews chances at finding the end zone between 30% and 56%, with most models around 40%. 

Vegas' new defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is creating tremendous pressure with his front four (No. 1 pressure rate despite blitzing on only 22% of snaps), collecting eight sacks and 10 QB hits. The Raiders now set their sights on second-year QB Tyler Shough. His PFF profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture under pressure. As a rookie, Shough was night and day when kept clean vs. under duress, rating 27th among qualifying QBs. The 2026 season produces a similar split, rating No. 5 when clean but 18th under pressure. It just so happens an already stressed New Orleans offensive line will be without starting LT Kelvin Banks for a while due to an ankle injury in Week 2. The Saints pass protection has already allowed eight sacks and ranks 28th in pass block win rate.

Davante Adams is trading at 42% to score a touchdown against the Denver Broncos on Kalshi, and I'm definitely hitting the button at that price, as I make Adams closer to a 49% probability of finding the end zone. It's worth noting that this projection has Puka Nacua playing, so Adams' target share could increase even further if Nacua sits out again. In addition to the solid probability gap we're able to attack here, Kalshi is also off market on this prop, which only increases our edge. Adams is trading closer to the 49% range I have him projected at across several other markets, reinforcing the value at this price.