Best NFL Picks Today

Atlanta has already allowed three TDs to tight ends, giving Tucker Kraft a favorable matchup Thursday. He’s one of the few dependable playmakers in a depleted Packers offense, with Jayden Reed’s injury making him even more important to Jordan Love. Kraft scored six touchdowns in eight games last season, and Green Bay has every reason to feature him near the goal line.

This is undoubtedly one of my best bets for Week 3. We're seeing the biggest spread on the slate, and for good reason; the Fins enter this game with the largest point differential in the AFC (-36) and the fourth-worst red-zone defense in football. Expect Patrick Mahomes and Co. to play with their food and dominate.

I really wanted Quinshon Judkins at 2.25x against the Panthers, who are getting gashed on the ground. However, getting Denzel Boston at this price after two weeks of cashing still feels long, with a fair price around 3.2x. Judkins has not found any room to run through two games, but Boston already has a 21% target share and a whopping 52% of the air-yard share. The only wide receivers with a bigger AYS are Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson, and Chris Olave — some big hitters. Boston can run the deep route for a score like he did in Week 1 or catch and run for yards like last week. He's beaten the Jaguars and Bucs. Surely, he can beat the Panthers, who gave up 59 points in Week 1 before having to play the worst QB tandem in the history of the sport in Week 2.

Grabbing this -5.5 line before Monday Night Football because I’m expecting the Giants to hang with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and New York will be an even larger home favorite over Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. The Titans were only on offense for 23:35 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and QB Cam Ward has thrown for just 6.2 yards per attempt through two weeks. Tennessee also hits the highway for the first time in 2026, and the new-look G-Men put on an offensive clinic in their season opener at MetLife Stadium. 

My belief in the Pats' offense is next to zero. Drake Maye starting the season with 1 touchdown against four picks furthers the narrative that he was a schedule merchant last year. New England's passing offense is among the worst in football through two weeks, averaging just 179 yards in the air per game. I'm expecting this Jags defense to eat them alive in a low-scoring battle at home.

The Bills are 2-0 to the Over this year due to their potent offense. However, their defense is my primary selling point here. Buffalo has been involved in two shootouts this season, a 36-31 win in Week 1 against Houston and a 41-31 victory against the Lions in Week 2 - coughing 368 yards per game as a result. I'm expecting the Chargers to finally put together a game under Mike McDaniel here, with a total that should be closer to 55.5. Punts will be few and far between on Sunday.

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low. The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time. So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over. Play this up to 55%.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

Defensive masterminds Todd Bowles and Brian Flores send extra pass rushers more than most, which has me measuring just how the respective QBs will handle the heat. Baker Mayfield has been solid versus the blitz during this time in Tampa, with an uncanny ability to sneak away from pressure and either make a play with his legs or squeeze in a release pass. Kyler Murray is expected to be under center after having his Vikings debut cut short due to a concussion in Week 1. Murray hasn’t been great against blitzes during this career and had only 11 full-speed snaps (five dropbacks) in Kevin O’Connell’s offense before getting hurt. We’re getting Tampa Bay at a discount. It was originally a 1.5-point home favorite on the look-ahead market and sat at that same spread before the results of Week 2.

Baltimore just allowed New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough to throw for 7.4 yards per attempt with a 79.4 completion percentage in Week 2, and now the Ravens go up against a Dallas offense that’s fourth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 2. Of course, there’s no stop on defense for the Cowboys, and the Ravens respectively check in sixth and third in the two highlighted metrics. Finally, I anticipate the trip south to Maracana Stadium to also take its toll on the two defenses in Week 3.

Vegas' new defensive coordinator Rob Leonard is creating tremendous pressure with his front four (No. 1 pressure rate despite blitzing on only 22% of snaps), collecting eight sacks and 10 QB hits. The Raiders now set their sights on second-year QB Tyler Shough. His PFF profile doesn’t paint a pretty picture under pressure. As a rookie, Shough was night and day when kept clean vs. under duress, rating 27th among qualifying QBs. The 2026 season produces a similar split, rating No. 5 when clean but 18th under pressure. It just so happens an already stressed New Orleans offensive line will be without starting LT Kelvin Banks for a while due to an ankle injury in Week 2. The Saints pass protection has already allowed eight sacks and ranks 28th in pass block win rate.