New Mexico State vs Florida International Picks & Props
NMSU vs FIU Picks
NCAAF PicksI like the Under on New Mexico State's team total at 20.5 or better. The Aggies have scored more than 21.5 points in two of their five games, and those two came against an FCS program and a Western Kentucky defense ranked 130th by SP+. FIU has one of the best defenses in the G6, ranked 59th by SP+ and eighth in available yards percentage (33.4%).
The Under is in play for me at 45.5 or better. Not only is weather expected to be an issue, but both of these offenses rank outside the top 95 in success rate. Meanwhile, FIU's defense is one of the best in the Group of Six, ranking fifth in success rate (34.9%).
FIU is worth playing up to -8.5 against New Mexico State. The Panthers have one of the top defenses in the Group of Six, ranking eighth nationally in available yards percentage (33.4%). FIU also has a star playmaker in Maguire Anderson, who's capable of torching an Aggies defense that's 106th in pass success rate (48.6%).
Neither offense ranks in the top 95 in success rate, and the weather will be a problem (thunderstorms and rain all day). That should hurt two already-lacking passing attacks. However, FIU's defense is one of the best in the G6, fifth in success rate (34.9%), and should make the difference.
NMSU vs FIU Consensus Picks
NMSU vs FIU Props
Recent Form Trends
Over is 7-0 in Aggies last 7 games following a bye week.
Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Aggies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Aggies last 4 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-1 in Aggies last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 road games.