Georgia vs Alabama   Picks & Props

Sacovie White-Helton has the speed to burn Alabama's defense on a deep ball. The Georgia receiver has one touchdown this season, a 70-yard score against Western Kentucky. With both teams looking to make a statement, I expect the Bulldogs to take some shots downfield, giving White-Helton a chance to find paydirt.

Although the Georgia Bulldogs' run game has been lights out this season, the pressure Alabama's sophomore quarterback will face on Saturday could force him out of the pocket and require him to use his legs to extend drives.

Russell's longest rush over 13.5 yards is already on my Week 6 card, as he's broken off at least one 15-yard rush in every game this season. If a play breaks down in the red zone, Russell should have a chance to find paydirt.

Keelon Russell has flashed plenty of rushing upside, topping 35 yards in three of Alabama’s five games. Georgia’s pass rush could force the sophomore quarterback out of the pocket and into open grass. I like Russell over 20.5 rushing yards, but I would not play this number any higher.

Keelon Russell managed just 188 passing yards against Kentucky, and Georgia presents another tough test through the air. The Bulldogs are allowing 209.3 passing yards per game, and Alabama has yet to face a defense of this caliber. I like Russell under 238.5 passing yards, playable down to 230.

Georgia has won all five games by 24 or more points, limiting Gunner Stockton’s passing volume. However, this matchup should be more competitive, keeping the senior quarterback involved throughout. Alabama has allowed more than 230 passing yards per game, giving Stockton a strong opportunity to clear 204.5 passing yards.

In Georgia's lone game against a quality defense (Oklahoma), Gunner Stockton was unimpressive (65.7 QBR, 60.9% adjusted completion rate). In the rain against an Alabama defense ranked top 25 in havoc rate (20%) and success rate (37.9%), the Bulldogs will struggle to score more than 24 (I like Georgia's team total Under at 24.5 or better).

If not for the weather, this game total would be much higher, but with the storms caused by Hurricane Isaias, the Under is in play for me at 51.5 or better. Georgia QB Gunner Stockton struggled in his lone game against a quality defense (Oklahoma), and Alabama's defense ranks ninth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play. Similarly, Keelon Russell hasn't played a defense as loaded as Georgia's, which is ranked No. 1 by SP+. 

These are arguably the two best teams in the country right now, and with the weather, it's a toss-up. But I like Alabama's offense to make the difference and win (though I would take the Tide up to -1.5). The Bulldogs haven't seen a quality offense yet this season, and Alabama QB Keelon Russell has been one of the best players in the country. Russell is third nationally in QBR (91.0). 

Georgia as an underdog? Sign me up. The Bulldogs have the defense to make life miserable for Keelon Russell, and I trust Kirby Smart far more than Kalen DeBoer in a heavyweight matchup. Alabama has been rolling, but Georgia is the reality check. I’m backing the Dawgs to bite.