Southern Miss 11th Sun Belt1-3

Troy 8th Sun Belt2-2

8:00PM ET 8:00PM ET · Oct 06, 2026

Southern Miss vs Troy Picks & Props

USM vs TROY Picks

NCAAF Picks

1st Half Spread

USM 1st Half +6.5 (+102)

Best Odds

+6.5 +100

Pick made: 5 hours ago

+6.5 +100

+6.5 -110

+6.5 -118

+6.5 +100

+6.5 -120

I like the Golden Eagles to stay within a touchdown at the break. In Landry Lyddy's lone start this season, Southern Miss went into halftime tied 14-14 on the road at Tulane. Troy trailed No. 20 Missouri 24-17 at the half, and its offense has managed 17 and 10 points in its last two games. Goose Crowder has turned it over repeatedly in that span, and a low-scoring first half makes a seven-point margin hard to reach.

Total

u49.5 (-109)

Best Odds

u49.5 -110

Pick made: 5 hours ago

u49.5 -110

u49.5 -115

u49.5 -110

u49.5 -115

u49.5 -110

u49.0 -109

u49.5 -110

u49.5 -115

The Under is 4-0 in Troy's games this season, with an average of 42.8 total points. Southern Miss's 24.5 points per game are inflated by a 49-point outing against FCS Alcorn State; against FBS teams, it has scored eight, 20, and 21.

Troy should lean on the run against the nation's 136th-ranked run defense, and the Trojans already hold the ball 33:26 per game. Add two shaky kickers (a combined 7-of-14 on field goals) and a Troy defense that held No. 20 Missouri to 230 yards, and this total is too high.

Spread

USM +10.5 (-109)

Best Odds

+11.5 -105

Pick made: 5 hours ago

+10.5 -110

+10.5 -115

+10.5 -112

+10.5 -115

+10.5 -110

+10.5 -115

+11.5 -105

+10.5 -110

Southern Miss has found something at quarterback. With Ethan Hampton out with a broken hand, Landry Lyddy threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns without a pick in a 24-21 loss at Tulane, a game the Golden Eagles led entering the fourth quarter. Blue Chip Analytics makes Troy a 7.7-point favorite. In what should be a low-scoring game, I'll take the points.

3 LEG PARLAY

USM +10.5

Spread

u49.5

Total

USM 1st Half +6.5

1st Half Spread

Bet now

+630

Pick made: 5 hours ago

All three legs follow the same script: Southern Miss hangs around early, Troy's limited offense never pulls away, and the game stays in the 40s. Troy has scored 27 points in its last two games combined, and Lyddy gives Southern Miss enough of a passing game to keep it within 10. Southern Miss stays within a touchdown at halftime, then Troy ground it out in the second half and cashed every leg.

Southern Miss vs Troy Picks & Props

USM vs TROY Picks

USM vs TROY Consensus Picks

48% picking Southern Miss vs Troy to go Under

USM vs TROY Props

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

Southern Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 55% ROI)

Southern Miss has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)

Southern Miss has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Southern Miss has hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Southern Miss has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.85 Units / 6% ROI)

Southern Miss have only covered the 1Q Spread in 2 of their last 12 games (-9.35 Units / -68% ROI)

Southern Miss has only hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (-4.70 Units / -14% ROI)

Southern Miss has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 12 games (-4.05 Units / -19% ROI)

Southern Miss have only covered the Spread in 4 of their last 12 games (-3.70 Units / -28% ROI)

Southern Miss has only hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 12 games (-3.15 Units / -22% ROI)

Troy has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.95 Units / 58% ROI)

Troy has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.45 Units / 5% ROI)

Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+2.20 Units / 6% ROI)

Troy has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 14 games (+1.65 Units / 6% ROI)

Troy has only hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 14 games (-6.95 Units / -45% ROI)

Troy has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 14 games (-4.95 Units / -31% ROI)

Troy has only hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 14 games (-3.30 Units / -21% ROI)

Troy has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 14 games (-1.20 Units / -7% ROI)

USM vs TROY Top User Picks

'Hoosier' picks Southern Miss vs Troy to go Over (49.5)

'Geo Lazos' picks Southern Miss vs Troy to go Under (49.5)

'dixdixpa33' picks Southern Miss vs Troy to go Over (49.5)

'sportsdool1123' picks Southern Miss vs Troy to go Under (49.5)

'manomanomano551' picks Southern Miss vs Troy to go Over (49.5)

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